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Flimsy correlations

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#1 NAV



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Posted 01 March 2018 - 11:06 PM

Last week decline was blamed on rising yields. Today both the S&P and bond yields declined. The flimsy correlation broke down. Now what do the spin masters attribute the decline to ? Oh wait, didn't Trump announce tariffs on steel and aluminium ? 


Was that Granville who said "News is for chumps" ?


I see nobody talking about the log periodic advance in S&P breaking down. Just like it happened with Bitcoin in January. When parabolas break down, every bounce is supplied with selling, by those did not sell it in the first wave of decline. And it becomes self-fulfilling. You can attribute the decline to anything - even to the Belarus hooker who threatened to expose Trump.

Edited by NAV, 01 March 2018 - 11:08 PM.

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    Mark S. Young

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Posted 01 March 2018 - 11:26 PM

This one is close, time wise, to being over. If my read is right. But it isn't over yet, that seems pretty clear.



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#3 Data



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Posted 02 March 2018 - 09:50 AM

Sometimes, the correlations are leading in time, and sometimes, they lag.   It is pretty close between the SPY and TLT.  $EURUSD correlation with $SPX also appears to have peaked.  


The parabola coincided with a one-month 98 billion dollar paydown in US debt.  There is now 347 billion dollars in additional debt supply during February.

Edited by Data, 02 March 2018 - 09:51 AM.