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Turn Risk Windows Tuesday and Friday


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 05 March 2018 - 03:20 AM

The days this week with the highest risk of a turn are Tuesday the 6th and Friday the 9th of March for very different reasons.  Tuesday has no serious risk cycle turns and Friday has a lot.  Both conditions have coincided in the past with stock market turns or acceleration of the current trend. 

 

The later is what concerns me about the Tuesday risk window.  If Monday is down sharply, the end of last week's risk window turn becomes a one day wonder failure and makes it more likely that Tuesday will be an acceleration down day.  An early test of the Powell Put might be in the offing. 

 

I hate to say this because it will make me sound like a tin foil hat wearing loony, but crashes occur from oversold conditions when hope is lost. The October 29 event actually began on Thursday the 24th culminating in a free-fall the following Tuesday (the 29th).  Of course if Monday is flat to up then this is all much ado about nothing.  The probability of such an event is so low that it is probably silly even mentioning it, but extremely low is not zero given the recent parabolic rise.  Apologies in advance for even raising this.

 

Regards,

Douglas



#2 Douglas

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Posted 07 March 2018 - 11:13 AM

Well, the Tuesday March 6th turn came in right on schedule in the risk window, but the extreme downside action I was worried about only flashed briefly in the after-hours.  Cooler heads, dip buyers, PPT, FED put, ... etc. have apparently again prevailed saving the day as I type late Wednesday morning NY time.  This turn is starting to lose steam and may be just another one day wonder.  Just pity the poor black swan drowned in the East River, again.  

 

There are so many risk cycle turns centered around the 9th that it might be worth keeping an eye out for a turn from Thursday the 8th afternoon until Monday morning  -   a turn down if this current bounce really takes hold, or a turn up if the Tuesday turn down gets back on track, or even an acceleration event if that danged black swan does a Phoenix.

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 07 March 2018 - 11:16 AM.