7 replies to this topic

[NAV]

NO !

 

In Feb, i called for a crash and actually put my money where my mouth was and traded the entire crash. There were many many ingredients that were present during the Jan run-up which had a potential for a crash. 

 

1) Mass hysteria in Crypto and the eventual bitcoin crash

2) Parabolic run-up in stocks

3) CNN Fear and Greed showing extreme optimism

4) Public opening large number of new brokerage accounts.

5) Public participation in markets in record numbers

6) Frothy message board sentiment

7) Log periodic nature of market run-up

8) Investors Intelligence showing spreads larger than 1987

9) Monthly RSI more overbought than anytime in the history of U.S stock market (larger than 1929).

10) Extreme spread between the price and some  key moving averages.

 

Many more...

 

Currently we do not have any of those ingredients for a crash type of move.  I am not saying a downside move is not possible. We could still get a price decline, but not a crash. To me crash is big price collapse in a short order of time. 10-20% in 2-3 days kinda move. Slow orderly bleed-to-death is still possible.

 

 

Look at the CNN fear and Greed index. Do markets crash with such a sentiment backdrop ? NO.

 

http://money.cnn.com...fear-and-greed/

 

Also, look at the bitcoin. After the wave A crash from 20k to 6k, we are now sliding down the slope in a persistent slow manner in a wave C decline. The crash is over. Now it's slow bleed to death.

[Geomean]

Here’s the historical precedent I’m tracking closely and what I am observing. Count the days from major highs to secondary highs in the famous crash years (29 TD). Count the TD from the Jan high to the March high (29). Then count when the real accelerations down start to occur. (@TD 34 from the top), with the “crashes” a few days later once the wave (1) lows don’t hold. Where are we now? TD 34 and getting in position where a retest of the wave (1) Feb 9 low is possible. With the Hurst showing at least an 18 month peak (and arguably as high as an 18 year peak) it’s very unlikely the wave (1) low will hold. The 40 week cycle low is in front of us. The last Kondratiev low was 1982. The next one is in front of us. We are on the downward slope of the Kondratiev wave now, possibly from the 18 year high. https://en.m.wikiped...Kondratiev_wave. Do Parabolic run ups end with a single wave down?

[NAV]

 

 

 Do Parabolic run ups end with a single wave down? 

 

Does the third wave or C wave have to be a crash ?

[LarryT]

Odds continue to favor the pattern off the top is a wave four triangle that will drive everyone crazy. Triangles eat up a lot of time and this one is not even one third completed. Looking toward May for that.

 

LT...d:^)

[Geomean]

The island reversal completed yesterday signaled a trend change. That Feb 9 low is the key . Even a © =(a) would break that low, would be called a crash, and invalidate the currently plausible Wave 4 triangle alternate count.

[LarryT]

The island reversal completed yesterday signaled a trend change. That Feb 9 low is the key . Even a © =(a) would break that low, would be called a crash, and invalidate the currently plausible Wave 4 triangle alternate count.

That is possible so until 2590 is busted still favor the triangle off the Feb 2016 low, wave five toward 3200 still favored.

[NAV]

The island reversal completed yesterday signaled a trend change. That Feb 9 low is the key . Even a © =(a) would break that low, would be called a crash, and invalidate the currently plausible Wave 4 triangle alternate count.

 

What is your definition of a crash ? Lately, we have been substituting the word "Crash"  for "Decline". Every price decline does not have to be a crash.

[Geomean]

Many would call the c=a discussed a crash.  25% + is a crash in my mind.