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Bears want a higher close and bulls lower


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#1 saltlake

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Posted 21 March 2018 - 02:13 PM

Fed day closes are almost always a fade(for at least the following day)

#2 saltlake

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Posted 21 March 2018 - 06:18 PM

Should be a big up day tomorrow, eventually this bull market will end though, like always the fed will make sure of that. Don't fight the fed right??



#3 Iblayz

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Posted 21 March 2018 - 10:28 PM

Lots of numbers in play here. First of all, in order to go lower (and in my opinion), a close below (really two below) 2713.50 ESM8 must happen. Would be more convincing if that those closes were below 2710.75. However, if this level holds without the aforementioned closes, it is my opinion that the next stop higher will be ESM8 2913.75 minimum. I am certain that the SPX will make new highs. The question is........will that happen in the next few weeks or will it be delayed until later in the year. Personally, I think it will happen in the next few weeks. Am I holding long and betting on it. Nope. I am a daytrader.

 

Arguments for: I already see evidence that the 2913.75 target is in play.

                        SPX signal lines have now been red for six days and the last four ES closes are within 4.5 points of each other. Of course, bears see this as a consolidation at the lows.

                        If the economy is going into the tank soon, one would expect the all-knowing charts of the small caps and the regional banks to be reflecting that......after all, they are the ones who are supposed to suffer the most in a downturn.

                        Is that happening? Don't think so.

                        So far, there have been four attempts to close ES below 2713.5. Haven't been able to do it. Is a gap below and run possible? Sure it is.

                        Near perfect setups for buy signals in the range that I consider most reliable on the NDX, Nasdaq, SPX, NYSE, DOW and W5000. Could happen easily at tomorrow's close. For example, I just ran these hypothetical numbers

                        on the SPX for tomorrow. Open.....2713.08.  High....2722.50. Low.....2705.55. Close....2720.9. Result.....buy signal on the close. Remember, those are not predictions. Just did that to see how little it would take to make it happen.

 

Arguments against: The nearly textbook setup for the C-Down of an ABC down on many index charts.

                                Possible consolidation at the lows......I mean.....it ain't hard to figure that one out.....is it?

                                Evidence that a move to minimum 2672.50 ES is in the cards (with 2631 next). (The bullish evidence of a move to 2913.75 is more convincing in my book. But my book does not move the market.)

 

Above was not meant to be exhaustive. This is simply what popped into my mind as I was posting. SPX turned red the day after my last post. Didn't update that for two reasons. One, I didn't have to. Two, a lot of my time has been taken over the last few days with a couple of outside issues. One is a project that I committed to that is taking up WAY more time than what I envisioned. Two, I have a close (and VERY serious) family medical issue that is more important than worrying about what the evil vampire squid is planning for the market over the next few days. Selah.

 

In edit, the post was prettier the way I had it formatted. Too much trouble to try to make it look the way I meant for it to look. So I didn't try.


Edited by Iblayz, 21 March 2018 - 10:30 PM.


#4 Iblayz

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Posted 22 March 2018 - 07:10 AM

Looks like the attempt will be to gap it down and run (or hold it). For the record, if the lower target is reached (2631), that would kill the implied target of 2913.75. Funny......for three or four months I have targeted March 22nd as a HIGH and was originally thinking that it might be a final high for several months. Must have been standing on my head.



#5 saltlake

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Posted 22 March 2018 - 07:49 AM

Thanks L, at this point my fade the fed day close is not looking good. I was gong to take a ES position this morning but I wont know until I see some strength , needs to get back above 2714 for me to be thinking long. I will be 100% cash in long term accounts this morning too, time to wait for strength to get back in.