7 replies to this topic

[Geomean]

Given that the Williams 5/34 SMACD has its highest monthly, weekly and daily readings thus far at the Jan high the odds favor the interpretation that January was a wave 3 high and we are in a wave 4 correction (notwithstanding EWI who does not use this indicator and is calling for a generational high and crash here).  The 5/34 SMACD on the daily chart was low enough at the Feb low to count that as a Wave 4 low. 

 

The Hurst modeling is suggesting an 80 day or twenty week low now.  It's better on identifying trend change windows.  The Hurst composite lines are inconsistent on whether we see chop in equities for the next few weeks or months or a tradable rise, perhaps to new highs.  A rise to new highs would be consistent with the notion that we saw a wave 3 high in Jan.

 

 The $SPX hourly printed a 10 of TD Combo countdown on 3/19 and given the futures this am will likely print 11-13 to complete a buy signal to complete. The TDSEQh13 (Perl's settings) buy signal printed at yesterday's close but will likely recycle on an hourly close below 2698.54.  ESM18 printed a  TDSEQh13 (Perl's settings) at the 8 am bar.  It is now on bar 9 of a buy set up --  completed buy set ups often print close to a bottom).  It's also at the 1.272 expansion of the low of the 19th.

 

Obviously the Monday's SPX low 2694.59, the first Monday of the month low around 2676, the 2647.32 low of Friday, March 2, and the 2635.53 .618 retrace of the last leg up are resistance areas to watch.  It looks like the first Monday of the month low is being tested now.  The SPX daily chart is on day 10 of a TDSEQ buy countdown which printed Tuesday so the 13 can complete on the dailies in this price area.  The TD analog low printed at 8am in ESM18 hourly.

 

So cycle and wave wise (the hourly ESM18 counts a completed (©) wave, (and DeMark) if it starts evidencing it has reached strong resistance here, there might be good cause to exit shorts and if it begins to evidence a trend change, to nibble long.  However, there is a big caveat here, the trend is clearly down and the market is closely following the daily chart patterns of the 1929 and 1987 crashes (and EWI could be right).  Personally, as posted, I exited almost all longs two weeks ago, became cash heavy and net short, and now I've cut my short exposure but have not added any longs.

[Geomean]

Now flat

[CLK]

Closed short as well just as the bounce started, position expired tomorrow, couldn't take the chance of giving it all back.

Still short MRK for the 29th.

 

I may add back later today for next week.

Edited by CLK, 22 March 2018 - 08:51 AM.

[Geomean]

This is beginning to look like a specialist's gap and cr*p trap.

[CLK]

Back short with 265P for next Friday, bad timing could bounce but new lows and DAX looks ugly, I think 

SPX follows +2% down min. Until hourly turns, close at 2700, short is still ok.

Edited by CLK, 22 March 2018 - 10:04 AM.

[Geomean]

Given more down, that TD Combo hourly 13 SPX buy signal will likely print at the end of the 11 am CDT hourly bar (will if this bar's close is lower than bar 12's close.  We hit the .886 retrace from the 3/2 low and the .5 retrace of the 2/9 low.  Volume/range indicators however not supportive of a turn yet but hourly volume declining and lower than the hourly 3/19 low.  Tricky low confidence stuff.  Continuing flat

Edited by Geomean, 22 March 2018 - 10:49 AM.

[Geomean]

Misspoke, the SPX chart bars are on the half hour. ES on the hour

[CLK]

Had to go out, glad I missed the bounce. I can do nothing but short until my hourly turns, even if that

means taking a loss.