Stocks are closely following the daily patterns of 1929 and 1987. That's concerning, because if that continues, the next move is a 20%+ crash.
16 replies to this topic
#1
Geomean
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Posted 23 March 2018 - 03:22 PM
Opportunity knocks on your door every day-answer it.
#2
redfoliage2
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Posted 23 March 2018 - 03:32 PM
With the selling intensified late in the afternoon the chance for a Black Monday is increased. So it's possible that the market may re-test the February low or lower low on Monday................
Edited by redfoliage2, 23 March 2018 - 03:34 PM.
#3
q4wer
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Posted 23 March 2018 - 03:57 PM
We have seen the top for the next 10 years.
Crashed market helps FED to shrink balance sheet.
Trump likes real estate, not stocks.
#4
q4wer
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Posted 23 March 2018 - 04:03 PM
vix is only 24. no where to bottom
#5
tsharp
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Posted 23 March 2018 - 06:39 PM
We have seen the top for the next 10 years.
Crashed market helps FED to shrink balance sheet.
Trump likes real estate, not stocks.
No LT top in yet... still need at least another leg up, IMHO.
My published chart from 4.9.16:
Through yesterday's close:
The SPX came to the first of my three favored targets today: ~2592... FWIW, the next two lower targets are: ~2462 & ~2332... I favor ~2462 as an end to this correction, unless it isn't :-)
Cheers, and have a great weekend!
#6
Dex
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Posted 23 March 2018 - 07:01 PM
Stocks are closely following the daily patterns of 1929 and 1987. That's concerning, because if that continues, the next move is a 20%+ crash.
In the past people have talked a lot about '29 and being near a repeat of that. Considering the parabolic increase it looks like it could happen if panic sets in.
Looking at the long term chart from '90 the S&P trend line and 200 moving average is at 1,500
"The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that, you've got it made. "
17_16
17_16
#7
q4wer
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Posted 23 March 2018 - 07:30 PM
Hi tsharp, what is the catalyst that triggers the up swing over recent high? The earnings around the corner? I think that the US - China trade war can only hurt US more, and stocks will do bad. Wall Street needs excuse to burst the bubble, and here is it. They make money on both sides regardless.
We have seen the top for the next 10 years.
Crashed market helps FED to shrink balance sheet.
Trump likes real estate, not stocks.
No LT top in yet... still need at least another leg up, IMHO.
My published chart from 4.9.16:
Through yesterday's close:
The SPX came to the first of my three favored targets today: ~2592... FWIW, the next two lower targets are: ~2462 & ~2332... I favor ~2462 as an end to this correction, unless it isn't :-)
Cheers, and have a great weekend!
#8
tsharp
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Posted 23 March 2018 - 07:39 PM
Hi tsharp, what is the catalyst that triggers the up swing over recent high? The earnings around the corner? I think that the US - China trade war can only hurt US more, and stocks will do bad. Wall Street needs excuse to burst the bubble, and here is it. They make money on both sides regardless.
We have seen the top for the next 10 years.
Crashed market helps FED to shrink balance sheet.
Trump likes real estate, not stocks.
No LT top in yet... still need at least another leg up, IMHO.
My published chart from 4.9.16:
Through yesterday's close:
The SPX came to the first of my three favored targets today: ~2592... FWIW, the next two lower targets are: ~2462 & ~2332... I favor ~2462 as an end to this correction, unless it isn't :-)
Cheers, and have a great weekend!
...the catalyst... how about global inflows into US equities... compared to the rest of the world, US equities are still a great bargoon!
#9
CLK
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Posted 24 March 2018 - 06:24 AM
I don't like the setup for next week as much now. I put a small hedge on in case the lows are in. The problem is NYMO is divergent with NYA.
That does not mean that the market can't crash, but if a rally starts Monday it will not look good for the bearish case. Also NYAD closed up
slightly on the day. It's not looking good in my book. All this should have been checked at the close and I didn't. At least I have some hedge,
not all I really need though.
With the TL breaks I circled the follow through retests, anything can happen, I just don't want to see a rally Monday. NYMO needs
to make new lows and soon.
Edited by CLK, 24 March 2018 - 06:26 AM.
#10
tommyt
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Posted 24 March 2018 - 05:04 PM
Odds are certainly higher for more of a spike/washout on Monday.
Bull case: turn on a dime and double bottom in here OR spike to a slightly lower low then turn with potential divergences.
Bear case: tech gets smashed harder and the system gets tested with regards to vol and leverage, and we explore new lower prices
I have no idea which one, I just place my bets and react to what I see...currently short.
http://stockcharts.c...id=p24359014377
