14 replies to this topic

[ryanoo]

The next  risk windows identified by my trading system for a stock market turn or acceleration of the current down trend are Monday the 26th of March and Tuesday the 27th of March.  Unusually for consecutive days, these are two distinctly different types of risk windows, so a whipsaw is likely.  

 

This coming week's turn risk window or at the latest the next risk window after that on April 2nd should clarify if this down move is a grizzly  or just a teddy bear.  Given the apparent exhaustion of all the recent speculative fever, it seems more likely the former, but as I've repeatedly noted my cracked crystal ball is best used as a paper weight. 

 

Regards,

Douglas 

 

Could tomorrow have another island reversal?  That will give a quite symmetric island reversal patterns, a top then bottom

[Douglas]

Wow!  The risk window system did call for a turn up today, but not a full blown bear meat bar-b-que.  It wouldn't be that surprising if Tuesday's risk window contained a half-hearted, one day wonder turn back down just to torture the bears a bit more.  I suppose an acceleration day to the upside also isn't out of the question now that we're back on the yellow brick road to the Emerald City.

 

Regards,

Douglas

[ryanoo]

Looks like an island reversal this morning. NDX

Just so you know Douglas, I always keep your calls as "Doug-ToA" on my google calendar. 

Thanks for your consistent contribution! 

[ryanoo]

darn it sucks, was hoping the rally will continue or consolidate instead it gave all back.  your turn date coupled with bradley turn date did the trick.  now will it continue down move until the next turn date.  all sentiment indications incl extreme p/c, vix, trin, ... all say it's extreme meaning it bottom.  but much respect to your turn dates.  the 1Q will look bad.

[Douglas]

Whipsaw, check!  I guess the action over the next couple of days will tell the tale if yesterday was indeed a one day wonder risk window turn down.  The market appears to be wiggling around in a big triangle trying to make its tiny mind up which way to run.  I still think (hope) it will be sorted out by the next risk window which should appear on the scene next Monday the 2nd of April, a late April Fools day since Sunday is a day of rest for fools.  

 

Regards,

Douglas