24 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

The charts are extremely bearish but it seems 99.9% believe the markets will crash & burn. The crowd may be right on rare occasions but not for long. 

 

SPX and S&P Futures are a few points off the 200ma so there could be an attempt to rally and I am not 

ruling out a 50 to 60 point rally in a day or two. 

 

However, there has been serious technical damage to this market - even on the weekly SPX, there is instability, fear, and there seems to be a drastic change in the nature of the market and its participants. 

So, my important levels are the daily 200ma and 2018 low as support, and the 2650/60 zone of resistance. 

 

On a longer term basis, I think the markets will go lower and then rally. Maybe a Spring fall, a Summer rally, a Fall fall, and an Xmas rally. 

 

Normally, one ignores political noise etc but with this President I do not ignore the politics, the fundamentals, and geopolitical factors. 

I also don't pay too much attention CBS' 60-minute but apparently there is an important episode later today.   

 

I am looking for a few good stocks or ETFs to buy - not the traditional BUY & HOLD strategy - but buy on panic selling, extreme spikes down, where I will  buy the stock or calls or spreads. Any recommendations?

I am looking at QCOM, semi and biotech ETFs, and maybe even financials. 

 

 

[MDurkin]

http://stockcharts.com/public/1107832

 

The charts are extremely bearish but it seems 99.9% believe the markets will crash & burn. The crowd may be right on rare occasions but not for long. 

 

SPX and S&P Futures are a few points off the 200ma so there could be an attempt to rally and I am not 

ruling out a 50 to 60 point rally in a day or two. 

 

However, there has been serious technical damage to this market - even on the weekly SPX, there is instability, fear, and there seems to be a drastic change in the nature of the market and its participants. 

So, my important levels are the daily 200ma and 2018 low as support, and the 2650/60 zone of resistance. 

 

On a longer term basis, I think the markets will go lower and then rally. Maybe a Spring fall, a Summer rally, a Fall fall, and an Xmas rally. 

 

Normally, one ignores political noise etc but with this President I do not ignore the politics, the fundamentals, and geopolitical factors. 

I also don't pay too much attention CBS' 60-minute but apparently there is an important episode later today.   

 

I am looking for a few good stocks or ETFs to buy - not the traditional BUY & HOLD strategy - but buy on panic selling, extreme spikes down, where I will  buy the stock or calls or spreads. Any recommendations?

I am looking at QCOM, semi and biotech ETFs, and maybe even financials. 

 

 

http://stockcharts.com/public/1107832

[tommyt]

Even if we are going up, a flush below the Feb low of SPX 2532 seems right. Run the stops then try and bounce.

[dTraderB]

Just to clarify, my reference to 2018 low is not SPX 2018 but the low of  2018  ! 

Of course, the market could sink to SPX 2018 or lower but I don't see that happening in 2018 but a distinct possibility in 2019. 

[redfoliage2]

I concur for a bounce from here, instead of more down. 

Edited by redfoliage2, 25 March 2018 - 05:40 PM.

[chem]

The charts are extremely bearish but it seems 99.9% believe the markets will crash & burn. The crowd may be right on rare occasions but not for long. 

 

SPX and S&P Futures are a few points off the 200ma so there could be an attempt to rally and I am not 

ruling out a 50 to 60 point rally in a day or two. 

 

However, there has been serious technical damage to this market - even on the weekly SPX, there is instability, fear, and there seems to be a drastic change in the nature of the market and its participants. 

So, my important levels are the daily 200ma and 2018 low as support, and the 2650/60 zone of resistance. 

 

On a longer term basis, I think the markets will go lower and then rally. Maybe a Spring fall, a Summer rally, a Fall fall, and an Xmas rally. 

 

Normally, one ignores political noise etc but with this President I do not ignore the politics, the fundamentals, and geopolitical factors. 

I also don't pay too much attention CBS' 60-minute but apparently there is an important episode later today.   

 

I am looking for a few good stocks or ETFs to buy - not the traditional BUY & HOLD strategy - but buy on panic selling, extreme spikes down, where I will  buy the stock or calls or spreads. Any recommendations?

I am looking at QCOM, semi and biotech ETFs, and maybe even financials. 

 

 

 

The charts are extremely bearish but it seems 99.9% believe the markets will crash & burn. The crowd may be right on rare occasions but not for long. 

 

SPX and S&P Futures are a few points off the 200ma so there could be an attempt to rally and I am not 

ruling out a 50 to 60 point rally in a day or two. 

 

However, there has been serious technical damage to this market - even on the weekly SPX, there is instability, fear, and there seems to be a drastic change in the nature of the market and its participants. 

So, my important levels are the daily 200ma and 2018 low as support, and the 2650/60 zone of resistance. 

 

On a longer term basis, I think the markets will go lower and then rally. Maybe a Spring fall, a Summer rally, a Fall fall, and an Xmas rally. 

 

Normally, one ignores political noise etc but with this President I do not ignore the politics, the fundamentals, and geopolitical factors. 

I also don't pay too much attention CBS' 60-minute but apparently there is an important episode later today.   

 

I am looking for a few good stocks or ETFs to buy - not the traditional BUY & HOLD strategy - but buy on panic selling, extreme spikes down, where I will  buy the stock or calls or spreads. Any recommendations?

I am looking at QCOM, semi and biotech ETFs, and maybe even financials. 

 

 

I'm looking at VBK vanguard's small cap growth as it has held up best in the recent selling and sl. out preformed on the way out of the feb low.

[dTraderB]

Thanks, will look at it. 

Market bolted out of that deep hole -- wished I had bought the semi ETF on Friday but there will be more opportunities

[dTraderB]

So, the rally is on, but the critical factor in HOW FAR and HOW FAST it goes will depend on the 

how the market participants react to pullbacks and any news - good or bad. 

Of course, the fist test is when the cash market opens, as many who are deep in the red will try 

to get out at higher prices. On the other hand, the Buy the Dippers will come into to take advantage of a possible 

longer rally off the 200ma, remember the previous one reached as high as 2812!

[Shaggies_View]

Will it be gap up and "GO" or gap up and "CLOSE" ?

 

Shaggy

[dTraderB]

100% certainty of at least ONE significant pullback (for a 1m ESM8 daytrder, "significant" could be as low as 5 points, but more likely there will be a pullback of at least 10 points, not much relatively speaking with this overnight rally of 20 plus points)

The extent of the pullbacks and how long they last  will determine how the market closes.

ESM 2650/60 is a very strong resistance one.