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BULLISH but doubts about sustainability of rally


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 26 March 2018 - 08:48 PM

Absolutely no doubt this was a super bullish day, that daily candle is more than enough of a buyers' surge, and the deja vu V-turn off the 200ma has so far amassed almost 80 S^P points in about 36 hours.  I had three great trades on the 5m chart - down after the initial surge, then up, and then up again during the last hour. 

 

NQ June Futures contract was even more bullish, so bullish that the disgraced Facebook reversed a 6% loss to finish up on the day and TESLA with the now suspect business model also turned around. 

But, surely, the trade tariff problem is not solved,  the internals were not indicative of broad participation, the interest rate hikes did not go away,  so why will the selling of multi-fay rallies go away? 

Could today be merely a relief rally after two huge down days last week that culminated in very negative sentiments  ? 

Maybe so, but the Bulls have the wind behind them after a great day for them and unless there is a failure at the 50ma, we may see another rally targeting 2800. 

Personally, I am not a believer that this is a sustainable rally but I would not be surprised if there is another 100 S&P points up on this holiday-shortened week, end of month, and end of Quarter. 

I would also not be surprised if this market runs around on any rumor, bad news, or any excuse to sell the rally.



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 26 March 2018 - 09:01 PM

ndy12.png

 

http://allstarcharts...ll-problem-now/



#3 da_cheif

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Posted 26 March 2018 - 09:28 PM

BULLISH but doubts about sustainability of rally

so the coming epicenter of primary wave 3 up doesnt weigh on your thinking.....well that just peachy



#4 tommyt

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Posted 27 March 2018 - 12:24 AM

You are trying to "figure" out why its moving one way or another. I said in January 2018 is the year of volatility...just trade it, who cares what the reasons.



#5 CLK

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Posted 27 March 2018 - 07:39 AM

I think the trade negotiations take some risk off, but every time NYSI broke the TL and bounced, it went on to make new lows.

Yesterday erased some, if not all of the divergences. Could be another wave up in the ES hourly to complete an ABC, and I

want to trade price, but I don't trust the run to new highs theory.

 

 

 

 



#6 K Wave

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Posted 27 March 2018 - 08:00 AM

NQ had long rally back up to backtest hourly 900 at 6850 level overnight, where I dumped longs and flipped back short...

 

Now watching this AM to see what happens around 6800. If bulls can continue to hold that area, and subsequently take out 6850, then a longer lasting bottom could be in place.

 

But if NQ closes back below 6800, still possibility yesterday and overnight was just a typical vicious day and half wonder to the upside, before continuing on down....


Edited by K Wave, 27 March 2018 - 08:00 AM.

The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#7 dTraderB

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Posted 27 March 2018 - 08:24 AM

Yeah, I am also watching that NQ 6780 to 6800 zone on the hourly chart.

 

No denying that was an impressive NQ rally of more than 320 points from Friday's low but when the reason offered for the rally was "trade talks are going well" etc then I am not alert for a sell-off, again



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 27 March 2018 - 08:26 AM

Also, this is end of month, quarter, and holiday-shortened week. 

This week may be for the bulls (not a given, with 3 days to go) but next week the bears may run it down again



#9 CLK

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Posted 27 March 2018 - 08:44 AM

Closed longs and shorted, hedged with OTM spreads for next Monday, am willing to give up some upside for a 

possible rally failure here.



#10 dTraderB

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Posted 27 March 2018 - 08:45 AM

Quick note: that important 2650/60 zone now becomes support until.... it isn't  if market falls, and then the usual support becomes resistance blah blah