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Outside down day as Goldman, Hulbert talk bear


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 27 March 2018 - 07:10 PM

I am using charts from investing.com, seems to me they are visually better. Look at the last 3 days, wow! Haven't seen this pattern in an index in a long time! Note also today's range was more than 5% of the NQ contract!  5% of an index in one day? It could be that the rest of the week's trading will be inside today's daily bar!

NQm27.jpg

 

Below is the S&P Futures chart. 

Not as bearish as NQ but also a long daily bar that closed more than 2% below the high. 

 

SPm27.jpg

 

 

 

Note the 50ma (brown) has actually TURNED DOWN!  It takes more than a day or two down to do that. 

 

We may get another rally to 2660 or even as high as the 100ma at 2690/2700 (blue) but they are simply waiting to sell the rallies as the buy-the dippers seem addicted to buying every drop; who knows, maybe the buy-the-dippers will overcome the selling and take the market to new highs. 

But, these charts are bearish and will remain so unless the bulls can take it above the 50ma.

 

Interestingly, some are even giving final targets for the bear market! 

 

Stocks may already be in a bear market — and here’s how long it could last

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 670 points on Monday, but fell 345 points on Tuesday. It will hit bottom on March 4, 2019, at 18,328.27.

That’s on the assumption that a major bear market began at the Jan. 26 highs, and that the ensuing bear market will be average both in terms of length and loss.

That would mean we face 11 more months of a declining market, in which the DowDJIA, -1.43%  will drop another 5,529 points (or 23.2%) from Tuesday’s close. The Dow has already slumped 2,759 points, or 10.4%, from its record close of 26,616.71 on Jan. 26.

Of course, we don’t know yet whether we’re in a major bear market. The Dow’s impressive rally on Monday surely let the bulls breathe a little more easily.

Goldman Sachs computer model warns bear market is near but the firm's analysts don't believe it

  • Goldman Sachs' bull/bear indicator is sitting above 70 percent.That level is "normally associated with high risks for equity investors," Goldman strategists say.
  • However, the strategists are telling investors not to worry. They note that the indicator's high level is mainly due to the low unemployment rate and strong economic growth momentum rather than rising rates or strong core inflation.
  • "It is because of the lack of inflation that some of these variables can appear stretched without ringing alarm bells for equity investors," the Goldman note said.

 

https://www.cnbc.com...believe-it.html

https://www.marketwa...last-2018-03-27

MW-GG244_bear_p_20180326120819_ZH.jpg?uu


Edited by dTraderB, 27 March 2018 - 07:15 PM.


#2 CLK

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Posted 27 March 2018 - 07:53 PM

They have two days to save it, need to close above 24,000. Since the market is about double from 2007, I went from 500 to 1000

points to make up for the difference. I think a small up day tomorrow and down Thursday.

 

 



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 28 March 2018 - 08:38 AM

Jeez, they did not wait for even 2 5m candles before selling it, again......



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 28 March 2018 - 08:40 AM

and an 18-point 5m candle   !!

Got to go to buy the bounce off this swing low



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 28 March 2018 - 10:24 AM

Choppy wild market action. Keep tight stops, whether long or short. 

If you are long, you must have a hard stop and be ready to dump



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 28 March 2018 - 10:35 AM

With S&P at 2600 and VIX still below 25, this market may have much more down in the next few trading days



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 28 March 2018 - 12:22 PM

long trades above 2624/26

 

short trades below 2608/10



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 28 March 2018 - 02:00 PM

Good luck if you got a good trade in the past hour

choppy, tight range....



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 28 March 2018 - 02:11 PM

FINALLY!  A break below 2608 !

 

This is not buy ^ hold trading so trail those stops !

 

Look for long trades above 2614/16