8 replies to this topic

[da_cheif]

http://www.naaim.org...exposure-index/

[OEXCHAOS]

SCREAMING BUY!

[Dex]

SCREAMING BUY!

9.97 lowest reading on this chart

https://ycharts.com/..._exposure_index

[EliottWave5]

It was 9.97 in mid-Oct 2014, during the first of several dips to 1800 range that ran through early 2016.   Next local bottom for NAAIM was ~38.30, in mid-sept 2015, second of those dips.  Next local bottom was ~22, early Feb 2016, last of those dips.  Next was election day.  All excellent buys.

 

And again dropped significantly lower at the Feb 8 2018 bottom, which was a great ST buy and probably a great IT buy.  Mark gave his readers a special alert for this signal.  Those of us who heeded it and found entry points were not disappointed.

 

Then again, now. 

Edited by EliottWave5, 29 March 2018 - 10:51 PM.

[csw2002]

It may be a buy - but might only be for a few days or weeks at the current value (median at 69.3 - still high for a bottom). As EliottWave5 pointed out, all the major bottoms formed with Exposure Index dedian at substantially lower levels for a 10% correction. For example, on Feb 3 2016, median exposure index bottomed at 5. My take is that with exposure index falling, the market will likely fall as well until it is at or below 30, in a large correction. That doesn't mean we can't get a big bounce just like the last signal that triggered in Feb that resulted in a multi-week bounce. What worries me is Mark's other major signals have yet to trigger such SH money flow on the buy side. Look at Jan - Feb 2016, there were huge inflows (hundreds of millions on some of the days and even after the bottom) and ditto for Aug - Oct 2015 bottom. My take is that we will rally next week. Monday may see a decline first with VIX option buyers again buying lots of calls on Thursday and Mark's Option Oscillator on the sell side - but that may be an artefact of the strong buy on Wed close (and curiously still more put buyers than call buyers using Mark's method). However, I suspect the market may come back down again in a week (or a few weeks?) to retest the low and possibly close below 200 DMA to really load the bear boat before taking off to the upside.

[da_cheif]

It may be a buy - but might only be for a few days or weeks at the current value (median at 69.3 - still high for a bottom). As EliottWave5 pointed out, all the major bottoms formed with Exposure Index dedian at substantially lower levels for a 10% correction. For example, on Feb 3 2016, median exposure index bottomed at 5. My take is that with exposure index falling, the market will likely fall as well until it is at or below 30, in a large correction. That doesn't mean we can't get a big bounce just like the last signal that triggered in Feb that resulted in a multi-week bounce. What worries me is Mark's other major signals have yet to trigger such SH money flow on the buy side. Look at Jan - Feb 2016, there were huge inflows (hundreds of millions on some of the days and even after the bottom) and ditto for Aug - Oct 2015 bottom. My take is that we will rally next week. Monday may see a decline first with VIX option buyers again buying lots of calls on Thursday and Mark's Option Oscillator on the sell side - but that may be an artefact of the strong buy on Wed close (and curiously still more put buyers than call buyers using Mark's method). However, I suspect the market may come back down again in a week (or a few weeks?) to retest the low and possibly close below 200 DMA to really load the bear boat before taking off to the upside.

http://www.siliconin...?msgid=31547701

[SemiBizz]

Well, that instrument should go on restriction...

 

Whenever you do something to change an input, you are making a mistake to reward that tool with reliability...

 

It should be UNDER STUDY, and if the old instrument works, you still rely on it... regardless of what you THINK.

 

If you can still get a readout using the old method, that's what should be done...

[Data]

IBD did the same thing with their distribution and accumulation days.   When it stopped working, they changed the definition to backfit the data.

[OEXCHAOS]

We have access to all the historic data under the new calculation method. I think that the data tells the same general story and means the same general thing. I would not use it as a precision tool at this juncture, however. I haven't had time to really dig into the new dataset and do a deep analysis. I intend to however.

 

M

 

 

Well, that instrument should go on restriction...

 

Whenever you do something to change an input, you are making a mistake to reward that tool with reliability...

 

It should be UNDER STUDY, and if the old instrument works, you still rely on it... regardless of what you THINK.

 

If you can still get a readout using the old method, that's what should be done...