Jump to content



Photo

What happened to ....?????


  • Please log in to reply
17 replies to this topic

#1 SemiBizz

SemiBizz

    Volume Dynamics Specialist

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 23,208 posts

Posted 02 April 2018 - 09:48 AM

"Every Month Starts With a Gap UP" ???

 

Now we did have that EXTREME CLOSING PLUS TICK OF +715.00 on Thursday... and that says a SHARP PULLBACK will be coming at some point now to correct the extreme sentiment of that close... So it could be manifested in the futures on Sunday night going into Monday

 

 


Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics

#2 SemiBizz

SemiBizz

    Volume Dynamics Specialist

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 23,208 posts

Posted 02 April 2018 - 10:09 AM

We're going to test February Low...

 

For Nasdaq 6630

 

6890 today's low so far...

 

Only down 174 points...


Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics

#3 Geomean

Geomean

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,177 posts

Posted 02 April 2018 - 10:15 AM

Updated the Hurst analysis this weekend-- indicating Friday was a ST top


Opportunity knocks on your door every day-answer it.

#4 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 5,120 posts

Posted 02 April 2018 - 10:17 AM

Isn't there a Wall-Street adage that goes "What gaps up for two years also gaps down for two years"?

 

yinyang.gif


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#5 SemiBizz

SemiBizz

    Volume Dynamics Specialist

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 23,208 posts

Posted 02 April 2018 - 10:39 AM

I bought some "core" short etf positions on that Thursday afternoon tick reading...

 

It's paying off, I'm going to trade around it...

 

Feels like this is just starting, doesn't it?


Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics

#6 Data

Data

    Member

  • Validating
  • 2,618 posts

Posted 02 April 2018 - 10:47 AM

Friday tested the double top neckline.   0.618 targets February low first.   614 billion dollars new debt in two months by Trump's budget is too much for even 120 billion dollars in QE (while not accounting for supply from EU and Japan).  The leveraged QQQ and tech ETF's are starting to look a lot like XIV and 2000 biotechs.  Up and down 30-40 percent in a month several times now.


Edited by Data, 02 April 2018 - 10:49 AM.


#7 SemiBizz

SemiBizz

    Volume Dynamics Specialist

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 23,208 posts

Posted 02 April 2018 - 10:56 AM

This isn't about the U.S. IMO...

 

saupload_BIS-early-warning-indicators-Ma


Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics

#8 diogenes227

diogenes227

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 5,120 posts

Posted 02 April 2018 - 10:56 AM

I bought some "core" short etf positions on that Thursday afternoon tick reading...

 

It's paying off, I'm going to trade around it...

 

Feels like this is just starting, doesn't it?

 

With the Monday/Wednesday/Friday expiration, SPY weeklies have practically become SPY dailies.

 

Monday, per $10K, 230% (at the capture moment):

 


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#9 SemiBizz

SemiBizz

    Volume Dynamics Specialist

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 23,208 posts

Posted 02 April 2018 - 11:02 AM

I think there will be some longer term plays available now...

 

I'm thinking this entire Trump rally is going to be given back now... Nasdaq 5200 or so... (Fits nicely with old dotcom high in a grand consolidation)


Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics

#10 Data

Data

    Member

  • Validating
  • 2,618 posts

Posted 02 April 2018 - 11:28 AM

The LIBOR rate has been spiking all month.   There was a ZH article on the massive short-term borrowing by the Treasury causing the spike.  If the spike continues, it may be a sign of stress.  The same article has a chart on Treasury supply which will turn negative soon, usually a positive for the stock market.

 

If the market follows the 1987 script, the low would probably approach the 2016 base low.   That crash retraced almost all of the games since September 1985 when US, Japan, and Germany agreed to coordinate interest rate and currency policy.  January 2016 brought on the negative deposit rates in Europe and Japan as well as other central bank policies.  Analogies almost always fail after everyone sees it.  If you're following the Powell/Greenspan analogy for 2018 versus 1987, today would be October 3, 1987.


Edited by Data, 02 April 2018 - 11:36 AM.