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"Sign of the Bear" revisited


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#1 prognosticator

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Posted 02 April 2018 - 05:03 PM

Previous comment located here:

 

http://www.traders-t...gn-of-the-bear/

 

 

I have traded this pattern for decades across all time frames and vehicles and consider myself well versed on it’s many variations as well the success rate associated with these variations.

 

With regard to ES, a very rare (for ES) un-filled island reversal gap remains located between 2842.25 and 2846.50. After today’s action I am more inclined to believe that this SOB pattern, although still in effect, may turn out to be either one of the complex variety or even a complete bust.

 

In any event, a trade opened today at 2562.50 with the lofty goal of that target up at 2846.50

 

I have found that more often than not, after reaching the bottom of the pattern, price will then manage to surpass the previous two peaks only to retreat yet again to original target. ES filling that gap during a blastoff overnight session and then reversing hard would be my guess should price even manage to get say, within 20-30 points or so.

 

Of course for my long term portfolio, I certainly hope this one plays out as intended and that a long term decline is in the cards and I believe it is even if 2846.50 is filled.

 

Looking at a 1 year daily chart of any of the symbols will provide a poor but quick to find example of the SOB with a third retest before failure: BIDU, NWSA, EXPE, IBM.

 

The SOB is a pattern that MUST always be traded. Understanding it’s vagaries is the challenge.


Edited by prognosticator, 02 April 2018 - 05:04 PM.


#2 Data

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Posted 02 April 2018 - 10:37 PM

Monthly close below the 200-day moving average and no monthly close above till the end of the bear market.



#3 prognosticator

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Posted 02 April 2018 - 11:19 PM

Monthly close below the 200-day moving average and no monthly close above till the end of the bear market.

 

A simplistic yet expected response.  To view trade on a monthly basis is foreign to me but I will accept your viewpoint. Thank you.