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Unanalyzable Market is now BULLISh


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2018 - 08:24 PM

Let's be honest: this market is unanalyzable, from minute to minute, from hour to hour, from day to day, with wild swings, long daily bars, back and forth over the 200ma, and moving quickly on any excuse or reason.

 

Market made a low during Globex because China retaliated; later it took off on a rip roaring rally and vaulted to a new weekly high after making a new weekly low a few hours before. But nothing changed in the trade matter! 

 

Market is now bullish, there can be no doubt about it, but market can then be bearish on Thursday morning and retrace all the gains while moving down to that 200ma, the most watched  and now most useless average in the world since who knows when....

That 200ma is irrelevant now since markets have crossed it numerous times, exposing it as a sham and a fraud. 

 

However, the best way I have found to trade such volatile markets is day-trading with the 1-minute ESM chart. I focus intensely on the chart, nothing else; open & close a trade, done, move on to next trade; focus on trade, open & close, done; repeat....this is not investing, no technical analysis except the most awesome indicator in the history of indicators: the AWESOME OSCILLATOR, the Swiss Knife of indicators, and with SAR (parabolic) stop to keep me honest e.g. I will not persist with a long trade if SAR tells me I should be out!  I have learned the hard way that in 99% of the cases I was wrong to keep a losing trade in the hope of profit and SAR was darn right.

 

It is at times very tiring but quite enjoyable and profitable. 

 

So, after 24 hours of wild action, we are back to yesterday's target: rally to S&P 2690/2700



#2 tsharp

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Posted 04 April 2018 - 08:40 PM

I don't see too much different from a month ago... the SPX is still in corrective mode, though the final low is probably not that much lower from the wave-a low... twt.

 

SPX_60_4.04.17.jpg

 

Link to chart:  https://postimg.org/image/66jjrmpjd/



#3 da_cheif

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Posted 04 April 2018 - 08:44 PM

Let's be honest: this market is unanalyzable, from minute to minute, from hour to hour, from day to day, with wild swings, long daily bars, back and forth over the 200ma, and moving quickly on any excuse or reason.

 

Market made a low during Globex because China retaliated; later it took off on a rip roaring rally and vaulted to a new weekly high after making a new weekly low a few hours before. But nothing changed in the trade matter! 

 

Market is now bullish, there can be no doubt about it, but market can then be bearish on Thursday morning and retrace all the gains while moving down to that 200ma, the most watched  and now most useless average in the world since who knows when....

That 200ma is irrelevant now since markets have crossed it numerous times, exposing it as a sham and a fraud. 

 

However, the best way I have found to trade such volatile markets is day-trading with the 1-minute ESM chart. I focus intensely on the chart, nothing else; open & close a trade, done, move on to next trade; focus on trade, open & close, done; repeat....this is not investing, no technical analysis except the most awesome indicator in the history of indicators: the AWESOME OSCILLATOR, the Swiss Knife of indicators, and with SAR (parabolic) stop to keep me honest e.g. I will not persist with a long trade if SAR tells me I should be out!  I have learned the hard way that in 99% of the cases I was wrong to keep a losing trade in the hope of profit and SAR was darn right.

 

It is at times very tiring but quite enjoyable and profitable. 

 

So, after 24 hours of wild action, we are back to yesterday's target: rally to S&P 2690/2700

unanalyzable???    to those who dont have the tools   i agree.....but once you learn clx analysis you will have been able to do this on march 28    http://www.siliconin...?msgid=31547663



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 04 April 2018 - 08:54 PM

I agree the IT decline is still on but today's action is super bullish until.... market regains sanity and resumes decline. That can happen anytime, whether there is a reason or not.   



#5 NAV

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Posted 04 April 2018 - 09:56 PM

If you are trying to trade both the trend and counter-trend, then yes the whole market action can look random and one can get whipsawed both ways. Since the Fed day, the trend has been clearly down on the hourly charts and it has been a short-only market, occasional bounces not withstanding. If you have good trailing stops, you not only lock-in your profits, but these bounces have been a great way to reload i.e re-short. There has been no confusion to me so far and has been a wildly profitable market. 

 

As for why all these bounces and declines happen, it's a waste of time trying to figure them out. Trying to correlate them with the news-of-the-day is even a bigger waste of time. Remember how everyone were saying the decline in Feb was because of the spiking yields. Now that the market has dropped with dropping yields, has confounded the same folks. Analyzing the "why" of the moves is unnecessary expenditure of emotional capital. Save that for trading.

 

Identify the trend and focus on one side trading. Life gets easier.

 

As for the current short term trend (which has been down since the Fed day), it is still down, but could turn up tomorrow. We are once again at a inflection point which should get resolved tomorrow.


Edited by NAV, 04 April 2018 - 09:57 PM.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#6 dTraderB

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Posted 05 April 2018 - 09:06 AM

SHORT then LONG daytrades in 1m ES

Now looking or short below 2654 or long above 2660

 

All the while in disbelief at this rally, snorting, scoffing in derision of what appears to be a no-burger rally....

but I trade the market as the market goes....

 

Note the SPX daily has not filled the gap from the high yesterday to low today. Want to see that happen today.



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 05 April 2018 - 01:00 PM

SPX daily gap filled barely

 

In other times, a decline from ESM daily high by 23 points would have been quite bearish but not now in these long daily candle environment. Still, watch closely to see if ESM fails at 2660/62 and the high at 2673



#8 tsharp

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Posted 05 April 2018 - 09:15 PM

It seems today's high completed a ST top, and another leg down is at hand.  I do have a second fractal count that would allow the pink wave-iii to be wave-a, and the pink wave-iv to be wave-b, as an edt forms over the next many weeks to end wave-c:iv...  the tell will be if the new coming lows are only marginal new lows with decent bounces, but that do not exceed today's high... twt.  Note also how the DTL on the momentum indicator chart stopped the upward move... TLs on indicator charts are of great value and use.

 

SPX_60_4.05.18.jpg

 

Link to chart: https://postimg.org/image/7gw42fxwp/


Edited by tsharp, 05 April 2018 - 09:17 PM.