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Trend update


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#1 NAV

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Posted 04 April 2018 - 10:10 PM

https://tradernav.bl...end-update.html

 

 

The short-term trend has been down since the Fed meeting day and has been on a continuation sell since March 27. If you view every bounce as a start of new trend, then you would have been chopped to pieces, every other day. Trend turns take time, not just price. In the context of a downtrend, bigger the bounce, the juicier the short. In a downtrend you need to short at the point of lowest volatility (which is near peak of the bounces) and get out using a trailing stop when the volatility gets high. Trying to short when the volatility is high or trying to buy when the volatility is low is disastrous. Many of them have learn't this costly lesson in the last few months.

 

Right now we have another bounce and the volatility should drop significantly by tomorrow. The size of the bounce has pushed this close to a buy, but not quite yet. We are now again at an inflection point, which should get resolved in a day or two.


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#2 andr99

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Posted 05 April 2018 - 07:18 AM

and these are good considerations that one can read with great interest because they are informative. Nothing to do with....watch the........etc.etc.   


forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#3 K Wave

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Posted 05 April 2018 - 08:40 AM

While it is always possible yesterday was not a major swing bottom, generally speaking, when you see that kind of long tailed spike like we saw on the index futures charts yesterday, it is usually an important turning point....

 

It looks like a near perfect 200 day tag on SPX/DOW, and now decent possibility we see rally toward 2720-2800 on SPX.


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#4 dTraderB

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Posted 05 April 2018 - 09:20 AM

Agree with your analysis, NAV, especially with the volatility.

I am closely monitoring my VXX 5m chart to see how it behaves as the market moves up & down



#5 NAV

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Posted 05 April 2018 - 10:09 AM

SPX 2662.5 has turned the short-term trend up in my system. It's in a buy-the-dips mode now.


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#6 Geomean

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Posted 05 April 2018 - 11:22 AM

Although not unanimous, the Hurst models are generally suggesting some kind to IT top around here.  Most indicate more chop for a few weeks rather than a sustained trend.  Elliott wave wise the notion that we could be in a complex corrective pattern is gaining credence.  Sell in May?  ESM18 just printed a TD Combo hourly 13 sell signal  this am's high at 2672.  2669 is the 161.8 extension at the .618 retrace of the decline from March 21.  I'm not adding to my longs and waiting for the ITM weekly op ex buy writes to be exercised and OTM's to expire.  Put a hedge in place


Opportunity knocks on your door every day-answer it.