21 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

FWIW My system project high odds -

Run to 2655-2658 this afternoon - then either

 - highest odds bounce back to 2690+-5 ..then down tomorrow to below 2650

- OR run today down below 2650

 

Near term target 2620 this week, where another bounce is high odds to 2660'ish

 

Other variation are possible but between the same key pivots (KP's) 

- 2690 is KP above, -  a move back above 2700 wd negate the pattern setup

- 2655 is kp below, a break below indicates pattern setup is executing to 2620.

 

This is based on what I called BF pattern - short for 'bot footprints.

 

Overall, we are in context of a hourly Swing sell, and impending daily(EOD) sell, and IT continuation sell, unless market rallies

back above 2700 near term ( next 1-2 days) which is low odds on my system at the moment.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 23 April 2018 - 12:40 PM.

[EntropyModel]

FWIW My system project high odds -

Run to 2655-2658 this afternoon - then either

 - highest odds bounce back to 2690+-5 ..then down tomorrow to below 2650

- OR run today down below 2650

 

We hit 2658 yesterday afternoon - now we hit 2684 this AM on bounce.

 

Ideally, the bounce we last several more hours ...for the BF pattern, before taking out the KP @ 2655 ...but markets are rarely ideal :-)

( time component is changed with restriction of liquidity, which is likely case here).

[EntropyModel]

Perfect -  BF setup for fast run to 262X area today maybe into tomorrow to close some of the many gaps below.

 

fyi - 2645 is a 'cascade pivot' which can  trigger an accelerating move.

 

https://www.screencast.com/t/lkLADRPY

[EntropyModel]

Close to initial BF projected tgts 262X already, 2620 was as above the 'ideal'.

 

I don't have buy signal yet, but I expect to get one between 258X and 262X highest odds tomorrow..for 2 day bounce based on BF setup.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 24 April 2018 - 12:46 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Ideal for today was 2620, we hit 2617.5 ...close enough, but now its get tricky.

 

I'm looking for buy signal, but, there is still time for one more drop into close.

 

From my trading blog:

Trading wise - I wd NOT touch long here, the bounce is likely initially choppy and COUNTER TREND ...so risk is always for a surprise continuation.
If things stabilize tomorrow there is then a high odds ST long trade run back to 2660.

[EntropyModel]

FYI - 

Along with BF1 setup given above - which calls for a minor counter trend bounce next 1-2 days back to 2650-2660 IF we open flat to up tomorrow AM and hold first hour.

 

There is now  a new BF setup on the system  - a rare cascade failure setup !

   - BF2 - IF we gap down at open, and or run under 2600 first hour:  then a run to 2500 or lower tomorrow

 

All system signals remain on Swing sell as posted, so risk/reward remains highly skewed to downside.

[EntropyModel]

Last post on the ST for time being -

 - we are at decision point right now between BF1 and BF2 ..both are still setup.

Next hour will determine, if we can't bounce, and drop under 2600, then system puts us on BF2.

It possible we will form a unique new pattern as well from here.

 

Swing/IT wise no change to previously posted sells - will update when finally get buy signals.

[EntropyModel]

FWIW My system project high odds -

Run to 2655-2658 this afternoon - then either

 - highest odds bounce back to 2690+-5 ..then down tomorrow to below 2650

- OR run today down below 2650

 

Near term target 2620 this week, where another bounce is high odds to 2660'ish

 

Run down to 2620 - check

Run back to 2660'ish - check

 

System is on a roll!, next, waiting for sell signal here and run back down.

[EntropyModel]

I now have ST sell signals here.

 

Next step:

System looking for a drop to 2650'ish ...into monday ...we shd not get above 2677-2680 (today highs) before that drop or this setup is negated.

[EntropyModel]

I should probably put these in new thread, but  FWIW I did these charts for my blog, but i'll post them here as might to give better idea of how I think, trade.

I look at other time frames, but the system I developed has highest confidence on these moves, beyond that its 'prediction' because we haven't reach the 'decision point' yet.

Overall though, for swing/IT - i'm still looking for us to turn down again from one of the decision circles show toward 2500 or lower high confidence.

note. Last week moves down to 2620, and up to 2660 were 'easier' because signals were at very high confidence, this next move is definitely trickier monday.

Often I am just in wait/observe mode, waiting for confidence to rise on one of the paths. 

 

btm line here:

 - monday's action should clear things up, as we are in a bit of a ST indeterminate decision point, though as shown 2650 is slightly more likely than 2690, but

a gap up or down cd dramatically change those odds ( I call that a PUSH).

 -  on swing/IT - as said earlier in thread, I still have high odds swing/IT continuation sell, hence high odds we start another move down to 2500 'eventually' , and last

week was a good confirmation moving down off 2717, hitting 2620 target and bounce....all as per BF pattern. But, we are several paths to that move down possible here:

 - the long road - we move back up to close gaps above to 2710

 - the shorter road - we roll over 2650, one more bounce to 2690, then down.

 - the short road - we close gap to 2640 mon-tue we are likely 'done' and ready to rock down to 2500 or lower now.

 

 

 

Edited by Entropy3.0, 29 April 2018 - 02:38 PM.