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Elevated Risk of a Turn on Wednesday and Thursday Morning


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 09 April 2018 - 12:15 AM

The next risk windows for turns or acceleration of the current trend identified by my system are this Wednesday April 11th and Thursday April 12th.  This is another odd pair of back-to-back, separate risk windows.  My gut, not the system, says the risk on the 12th is probably highest in the morning if another whipsaw is in the offing.

 

Speaking of the whipsaw, buzz saw market, my cracked crystal ball also says Monday the 9th is a turn too.  It doesn't show up on the system radar, but recently it seems that all strong move days like Friday the 6th are reversed the very next day just to torture trend traders.

 

Regards,

Douglas    



#2 NAV

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Posted 09 April 2018 - 01:36 AM

 

 

It doesn't show up on the system radar, but recently it seems that all strong move days like Friday the 6th are reversed the very next day just to torture trend traders.

 

Whether it's torture or fun, depends on timeframe. If you are trading the daily charts, it is indeed a torture. For a short term trader like me, trading lower timeframe charts, it's fun. My trailing stop got hit on friday and made +40 SPX points. If it turns up on Monday, it's going to be fun again.


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

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#3 Douglas

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Posted 09 April 2018 - 05:18 AM

I'm definitely a daily time frame kind of guy.  Up 500 one day and down 500 the next is flat in my book.  I'm sure it's a delight to you day traders, but just whipsaw to me. 

 

I still hope the intermediate trend will be clarified this week which is important to both of us, either sharply down or off again to the moon. My cracked crystal ball says down we go, but it has a checkered history of histrionics.

 

Regards,

Douglas



#4 NAV

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Posted 09 April 2018 - 08:55 AM

I'm definitely a daily time frame kind of guy.  Up 500 one day and down 500 the next is flat in my book.  I'm sure it's a delight to you day traders, but just whipsaw to me. 

 

I still hope the intermediate trend will be clarified this week which is important to both of us, either sharply down or off again to the moon. My cracked crystal ball says down we go, but it has a checkered history of histrionics.

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

I am not a day trader. 

 

Short-term trading and day trading are different. Short term traders still ride the trends, the hourly trends. Day traders don't ride trends and their trends get truncated at the EOD. Day traders don't hold positions overnight, but short-term traders do. The moves these days are so fast and so large that it used to take a few weeks to make that kind of profits last year. Many times your trailing stops gets hit intraday because of the high volatility and the trade looks like an intraday trade. But that does not make you a day trader.


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

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#5 Data

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Posted 09 April 2018 - 09:39 AM

It will be another 4-6 weeks before the trendline for the triangle meets the congestion area (rectangle) between the base of the triangle and the double-top.  That area accounts for 4% of total market cap.



#6 da_cheif

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Posted 09 April 2018 - 12:00 PM

The next risk windows for turns or acceleration of the current trend identified by my system are this Wednesday April 11th and Thursday April 12th.  This is another odd pair of back-to-back, separate risk windows.  My gut, not the system, says the risk on the 12th is probably highest in the morning if another whipsaw is in the offing.

 

Speaking of the whipsaw, buzz saw market, my cracked crystal ball also says Monday the 9th is a turn too.  It doesn't show up on the system radar, but recently it seems that all strong move days like Friday the 6th are reversed the very next day just to torture trend traders.

 

Regards,

Douglas    

wed?   isnt that WWW?   :>)



#7 Douglas

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Posted 09 April 2018 - 03:00 PM

Yep it is WWW, and there are nine other cycles that I track of one form or another that also turn that day.  Something exciting sure ought to happen in the Wednesday time frame. 

 

Regards,

Douglas



#8 12SPX

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 07:19 AM

 

The next risk windows for turns or acceleration of the current trend identified by my system are this Wednesday April 11th and Thursday April 12th.  This is another odd pair of back-to-back, separate risk windows.  My gut, not the system, says the risk on the 12th is probably highest in the morning if another whipsaw is in the offing.

 

Speaking of the whipsaw, buzz saw market, my cracked crystal ball also says Monday the 9th is a turn too.  It doesn't show up on the system radar, but recently it seems that all strong move days like Friday the 6th are reversed the very next day just to torture trend traders.

 

Regards,

Douglas    

wed?   isnt that WWW?   :>)

 

Yes agree, the timing of XI, indicates to me that were flat to higher at least until expiration now.



#9 da_cheif

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 08:47 AM

 

 

The next risk windows for turns or acceleration of the current trend identified by my system are this Wednesday April 11th and Thursday April 12th.  This is another odd pair of back-to-back, separate risk windows.  My gut, not the system, says the risk on the 12th is probably highest in the morning if another whipsaw is in the offing.

 

Speaking of the whipsaw, buzz saw market, my cracked crystal ball also says Monday the 9th is a turn too.  It doesn't show up on the system radar, but recently it seems that all strong move days like Friday the 6th are reversed the very next day just to torture trend traders.

 

Regards,

Douglas    

wed?   isnt that WWW?   :>)

 

Yes agree, the timing of XI, indicates to me that were flat to higher at least until expiration now.

 

if you hadnt noticed there has been a myriad of gap openings which have all been filled.......the resulting choppy market is the product of these gaps eh



#10 Douglas

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 01:03 PM

The risk window just says something exciting is expected in the Wednesday time frame.  An explosive rally up would be pretty exciting.  Although a turn down is more likely, an acceleration in the direction of the current trend is also possible, just less probable. 

 

The next risk window is probably Monday April 16th.  This might be a black swan day if something goes wrong during the Syria cruise missile/airstrike which might just happen during the next new moon dark sky night Sunday the 15th.  Watch the sky this week and watch the ground next week, I guess.  

 

Regards,

Douglas