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Death throes of a Dying Bull


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 09 April 2018 - 08:49 PM

"Throes" not "thores"

 

Got caught up in trading QQQ options today, what a day!

 

This dying bull is in the final death throes and today's reversal - for whatever reason(s) - shows how 

fragile this market is. 

 

Yes, there will be rallies but I simply cannot see this bull market getting back on track to new highs.

 

That 50-ma will be hurtling down towards the 200ma since we are now in day 49 since the market highs and,as you know, it has been basically down since then.

 

This is interesting:

The GOP tax plan means short-term gains for the economy, but federal debt is primed to explode, CBO analysis says

  • The Congressional Budget Office forecast that the new tax law will generate an average of 0.7 percent growth over the decade and create 1.1 million jobs.
  • However, larger budget deficits would crowd out private investment in later years, dampening economic growth.
  • As a result, the CBO estimated the cumulative deficit over the next decade will be $1.6 trillion larger than previously projected. By 2028, the national debt would total 96 percent of GDP.

 

https://www.cnbc.com...lysis-says.html

 

Small-Cap ETFs In Trouble - Possible Head and Shoulders Formations

Erin Swenlin | April 09, 2018 at 06:58 PM After the market close, my technical alert activated on IJR, the S&P 600 ETF with a new Intermediate-Term Trend Model Neutral signal. I noted that this same signal has already been hit on IWM, the Russell 2000 ETF. While I believe we are in a consolidation or shake out with a follow-up rally likely coming in the market, I'm not yet convinced the bull market is or will resume anytime soon. I'm sure it hasn't passed notice that Carl and I have been more bearish than most based on sector rotation study, our indicators and now I'm seeing small-cap charts setting up for decline, not rebound... Continue Reading


Edited by OEXCHAOS, 10 April 2018 - 08:14 AM.


#2 da_cheif

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Posted 09 April 2018 - 09:09 PM

fragile?   lmao  u worry 2 much....watch the sky



#3 tommyt

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Posted 09 April 2018 - 09:19 PM

First phase of a correction after a huge bull run is a high level range trade...similar to 1994. This digests some of the bull run. If it is gonna go/needs a deeper move, its later after this volatile range wears more out and you break to new lows creating a new layer of overhead and then acceleration. Daily work has a shot to turn up in here with a bit more work. Right now buy the dips until the Feb low is taken out for at least 2 consecutive closes. They are trapping players on both sides today, fun stuff, traders delight.



#4 da_cheif

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Posted 09 April 2018 - 09:46 PM

watch the sky   dow futs up 400 tonite



#5 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 08:16 AM

I just laughed when I finished dinner and checked the market! 

 

Made me look brilliant in the morning and an idiot by bed time! LOL! :lol:


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#6 ryanoo

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 08:37 AM

I just laughed when I finished dinner and checked the market! 

 

Made me look brilliant in the morning and an idiot by bed time! LOL! laugh.png

This is too much.  fluctuate between a genius one moment and an idiot before the day is over;  heaven one moment and hell next.  certainly not for the faint of heart.  it fits perfectly with our current administration sweatingbullets.gif  



#7 da_cheif

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 08:42 AM

 

I just laughed when I finished dinner and checked the market! 

 

Made me look brilliant in the morning and an idiot by bed time! LOL! laugh.png

This is too much.  fluctuate between a genius one moment and an idiot before the day is over;  heaven one moment and hell next.  certainly not for the faint of heart.  it fits perfectly with our current administration sweatingbullets.gif  

 

current administration?    whats the matter with you?



#8 dTraderB

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 08:42 AM

Rally rally rally! 

I need volatility to crash down so I can buy more QQQ puts.



#9 da_cheif

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 08:49 AM

Rally rally rally! 

I need volatility to crash down so I can buy more QQQ puts.

when was the last time you owned and cashed out qqq calls?



#10 Geomean

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 10:31 AM

 

ESM18 just printed a TDSEQ 20min countdown 13 sell signal at the .886 retrace of the April 5 high which, if it reverses here, would be the end of a rising wedge from last Friday's low.  With the current vs prior bar MFI {(HIGH-LOW)/VOLUME} and volume down, if there is a price flip on the 20 min that might be a good exit/pivot signal.  The hourly is on 11 of a TDSEQ countdown which could complete this PM.


Edited by Geomean, 10 April 2018 - 10:40 AM.

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