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The Big Picture: a critical convergence - 50 & 200ma


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 07:32 PM

That should be 50ma crossing 100ma, not 200ma; the 200ma cross will have to wait until later this year. 
Note:

- 50ma (blue) about to cross 100ma (black) 

- today is the 49th trading day since the market top; from tomorrow the 50ma will exclude the final blow-off rally and include only the drop in the market since the the record high; 

- the resistance zone that must overcome before I become bullish is defined by the thick dashed yellow horizontal lines, from 2669 to 2696 (SPX) 

- considering the above, this market will have to rally by at least 100 points in the next 2 to 3 days to reverse that 50ma/100ma cross (a kiss & move up) and overcoming the resistance zone. 

 

- there is a lot of talk about great earnings in the Q1 earnings season: earnings are the past, the markets don't trade on the past, and the economic & political environment is not as rosy as pre-January 2018.

 

BUT, if SPX can close above 2700 and the 50ma can avoid crossing the 100ma, and Trump does not do a wag-the-dog with a potentially dangerous military engagement in Syria, and at the same time does not do a Nixonian Saturday Night Massacre, then I will be bullish. 

 

 

spx_APR_10.jpg


Edited by dTraderB, 10 April 2018 - 07:41 PM.


#2 dTraderB

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 07:45 PM

The What-Have-You-Done-for-Me-Lately Stock Market Investors are focused on political turmoil and will need surprising good news to start buying stocks again

 

"....This doesn’t mean stocks can’t recapture the highs they reached in January. The economy remains strong, earnings will be solid and the Federal Reserve doesn’t appear to be overly worried about inflation. The challenge is those factors are largely priced into stocks.

Investors will need something more to get them to buy, including assurances that the U.S. and China won’t get into a trade war, and that turmoil in the White House will ease. More importantly, investors may need to see some good news that they haven’t yet accounted for—signs, say, that the economy will grow even more rapidly, with even less inflation than they think.

Until then, the stock market could be a perilous place"

https://www.wsj.com/...376687?mod=e2fb



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 07:51 PM

and a favorite: 

 

jfkt.png



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 08:16 PM

saupload_SP500-2015-2018-1-040418.png



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 11 April 2018 - 10:37 AM

Actually market has responded quite strongly in the face of several issues that would normally have sent it crashing!

 

I have daytraded both long & short - 3 long and 1 short ESM trades.

 

Still, SPX has not risen to cover the gap to yesterday's low, let's see if it can do that, and how it goes from there.

 

LONGS should put HARD STOPS in place, just case people start a missile war in Syria, a fake one or the REAL thing.



#6 K Wave

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Posted 11 April 2018 - 10:46 AM

They going after VIX....

 

Still think last Wed low in overnight index futures was major swing low....



#7 K Wave

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Posted 11 April 2018 - 10:55 AM

and a favorite: 

 

jfkt.png

 

I have been watching that chart since the election....

 

But as as long as ES 2625 holds, like it did this AM, I think we got more up before "possibly" rolling back over...