That should be 50ma crossing 100ma, not 200ma; the 200ma cross will have to wait until later this year.
- 50ma (blue) about to cross 100ma (black)
- today is the 49th trading day since the market top; from tomorrow the 50ma will exclude the final blow-off rally and include only the drop in the market since the the record high;
- the resistance zone that must overcome before I become bullish is defined by the thick dashed yellow horizontal lines, from 2669 to 2696 (SPX)
- considering the above, this market will have to rally by at least 100 points in the next 2 to 3 days to reverse that 50ma/100ma cross (a kiss & move up) and overcoming the resistance zone.
- there is a lot of talk about great earnings in the Q1 earnings season: earnings are the past, the markets don't trade on the past, and the economic & political environment is not as rosy as pre-January 2018.
BUT, if SPX can close above 2700 and the 50ma can avoid crossing the 100ma, and Trump does not do a wag-the-dog with a potentially dangerous military engagement in Syria, and at the same time does not do a Nixonian Saturday Night Massacre, then I will be bullish.
Edited by dTraderB, 10 April 2018 - 07:41 PM.