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Elevated Risk of Turn on Monday 16th and Wednesday 18th


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 14 April 2018 - 07:09 AM

The next risk windows for a turn or acceleration of the current stock market trend are Monday the 16th of April and Wednesday the 18th.  

 

The risk windows this past week did catch a whipsaw as I feared they would, but not a clear turn unless the market tanks on Monday the 16th. 

 

As I speculated incorrectly about last week, the market action in the two risk windows this coming week should clarify the intermediate term market direction.  (If you can't guess correctly, make sure to guess often!)

 

As to the airstrikes, as Rothschild said "buy on the cannons and sell on the trumpets", or I guess in this case one should have bought on the threat of cruise missiles this past week and should sell on the bragging tweets next week.   

 

Regards,

Douglas



#2 ryanoo

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Posted 14 April 2018 - 10:40 AM

How are the wars with missiles and air attacks only without ground troops different in market effects from the wars with ground combats?  I would guess they would be different in market psychology, with the missile wars having much less effect in the market.



#3 Douglas

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Posted 14 April 2018 - 12:00 PM

I think it's all about the degree of fear.  It wouldn't seem to matter what the cause is, just how much there is.  If it's just a worry, well, that's no problem.  Markets climb walls of worry.  As Mr. Valentine said, it's only when they fear they can't buy their kid the G.I. Joe with the kung fu grip that they start to mindlessly sell. 

 

   .

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 14 April 2018 - 12:00 PM.


#4 Douglas

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Posted 17 April 2018 - 02:36 AM

The April the 16th risk window at this point appears to have contained an acceleration of the current trend.  This is occurring right at the end of a rising wedge creating what I like to call a catapult pattern which literally slings prices higher as short sellers, expecting a collapse at the end of the rising wedge and doubly in this case due to the risk window, are forced to cover as prices accelerate higher. 

 

Regards,

Douglas