5 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

And there's nothing to do now... but give it all back... Consolidate old dotcom high just over 5000, where this all started...

 

[Dex]

Thanks

[Geomean]

The Hurst work is in accord.  The red dashed composite model lines (which is a summary of all the cycles tracked) in the Compx tile chart below all show significant downward movement until a window now centered on April 27.  All now have the March 12 Compx top labeled a 18+/- year cycle high.  

 

The composite model lines in this weekend's analysis of the $INDU, $SPX, $NDX and $RUT are almost uniformly projecting downward movement into a late April window and identify the Jan  or March highs as 18+/- year cycle highs.

 

[SemiBizz]

ROI is dropping like a rock all over town up there in NYC...

 

Pick a New York City Borough: Rents are Falling, and Fast

[Data]

The year-over-year change is essentially flat with January.  Rents may actually be increasing now.  There is a lot of seasonality to both sales and rentals.

 

national seasonality

 

Seasonality, Election Cycle, Government Debt Supply, and ECB/BOJ/FOM in two weeks are mostly favorable unti the end of April.  At the end of the month, the Fed is supposed to start removing 30 billion dollars/mo from the balance sheet.  That would effectively cancel out the purchases by the ECB going foward (on average).   The Bank of Japan is the only one still doing a lot of printing (guesstimate of 50+ billion dollars per month).  The scary thing is how much supply is expected for FY18 and FY19.  It may be as much as 2.8 trillion dollars.  The amount borrowed recently dropped by 60 billion dollars, but will stop when the inflow of tax payments are complete.

Edited by Data, 15 April 2018 - 01:18 PM.

[ryanoo]

Trump rally is indeed over.

What is he good for?

 

"just 48% of the industry groups in the S&P 1500 in up-trends. This is below the November 2016 trough"