10 replies to this topic

[tommyt]

The Spx has an interesting formation here, and a bigger move is probably upon us. We have NOT reclaimed the 50d nor this cluster of recent highs...but if there is a surprise its to the upside IMO. Most traders are bearish and/or think the rally is about over. Break to the downside and the vol ramps up again and more fun for many.

 

http://stockcharts.c...id=p63894033199

[Waver]

You think there is a surprise to the upside?

[tommyt]

Of two potential moves, yes I said its to the upside if it resolves this triangle type formation.

[OEXCHAOS]

To the upside it is, apparently!

[Waver]

Mark
That is your call, to the upside?

[tommyt]

"To the upside it is, apparently!"

 

Mark, I would say the real resolution of this formation will be during regular market hours. No clear break out yet.

Edited by tommyt, 15 April 2018 - 10:24 PM.

[Data]

That chart tells you nothing about what happens tomorrow.  It still has a ways to go in time and price before the trendline comes down or the price approaches the trendline.  Trendlines are made to be broken or probed.  They get drawn and redrawn every time to fit the past breaks within the larger picture.

[OEXCHAOS]

We're headed higher. Most of my stuff is rather Bullish.

I can visualize a rally similar to what we saw after the 1998 correction.

 

M

[Iblayz]

Numbers-wise, nothing has been resolved here. Bulls no doubt see this as building a base. Bears see it as consolidating near the lows. The previously mentioned target of ES 2445.50 is still in play and the evidence supports the target with seven closes below 2631. On the other hand, there is also evidence of a move to either 2697.25 or 2704.75 or both. In order to go higher, they probably need to close it a couple of times above one or the other or both. The only thing that will negate that 24445.5 lower target is a move above 2807.25. In these situations it is always wise to give the benefit of the doubt to the bullish case because, no matter what anybody says, the great majority of the money that moves the market is from long-only funds.....period. There is no such thing as minority bulls......except in polls and traders on the margin. Right now the traders on the margin do not seem to be on the same side as the fund managers. SPX turned green signal-wise on March 15th and has been green for 13 of the last 15 days, including the last three days. The HIGH on March 15th was 2674.78 with a 2612.62 close. There has been only ONE higher intraday high since, two lower closes in that time and a net gain as of Friday of 44 points. They need to turn it RED at a point higher than here. Otherwise that lower number starts to look doable. 

[tommyt]

Traders are/were too bearish late last week, everybody wants to be the one to "call" the high....up for now.