30 replies to this topic

[12SPX]

 

I think I am going to buy $3 to $4 ITM next time on Renko turns, the time and countertrends put me in too much risk

with ATM, if it doesn't go far and spends some time then turns on me, 70% loss instead of 30%.

 

Been watching you for years struggling with option decay. Not just the option decay, but the large spreads and slippages makes options one of the most inefficient instruments to trade in a slow market.

 

I can understand that you don't want to trade ETFs as you said your account size is not large enough. If leverage is what you are looking for, then why not trade the ES futures, which gives you plenty of leverage. Trading futures does not require a big margin.

 

Yes option decay is what I have lived on now for over 30-years.  Even when your wrong at first if you give it a little time it'll all work out 88% of the time.  

[CLK]

Dont mean to put you the spot but what would you do right now in the es and i'll tell what i would do...

 

 

I think no gap fill since the gap appears to exceed 8.7 points. I would go long the cash open with a six point stop.

 

 

My system turns on an hourly close of 2690, so the trend is still down until then, but NYMO should be up a lot today.

Edited by CLK, 24 April 2018 - 08:00 AM.

[chem]

Okay I have not look at futures since before post think it was 87ish i would sell anticipating a smaller gap open stop at 93ish - target below yesterday's low..but really the trade is built around the closeness of the stop available and the reason why the trade is taken is almost secondary. just remember no more than 1.5% of acct value on any individual trade calculated at a minimum daily. Now lets see if it a stop or ?

Update: for risk averse traders would lower stop to 2 ticks above overnight high ie...89ish move just prior to open - maintain target 56 and sit on your hands.

[CLK]

I think I see what I missed, 56 looks probable. Makes no sense internals are still up quite a bit.

 

 

https://invst.ly/79c-k

[CLK]

Similar setup as Feb. 2nd, Index P/C fell to 1.14 on the close while Equity closed higher, next day SPX fell an additional 100 points.

Only difference, the dip buyers are back at the close with a +294 TICK. Still could be complacency after such a reversal from the top today.

 

 

[chem]

Hard to pick direction from here quite oversold, but both nyse summations turned down from precarious levels, and getting close in price to overall target I would guess some back and fill and look for a bottom early next week 2563 cash area but don't want to see price below the Feb or April lows. If lost expect another hundred pts down minimum.

 

CLK it mattered not if the trade was favorable or not it was picking a spot that is defend-able with a close stop when I saw the upside petering out and the size of the gap good risk / reward presented itself.

[CLK]

Hard to pick direction from here quite oversold, but both nyse summations turned down from precarious levels, and getting close in price to overall target I would guess some back and fill and look for a bottom early next week 2563 cash area but don't want to see price below the Feb or April lows. If lost expect another hundred pts down minimum.

 

CLK it mattered not if the trade was favorable or not it was picking a spot that is defend-able with a close stop when I saw the upside petering out and the size of the gap good risk / reward presented itself.

 

 

I will start looking for those setups more in the futures, there was a reason they stopped at 2690, that was my buy signal on my 

trend system, I figured they would go over it in cash, got that one wrong. The risk/reward was good on that trade, small stop for 50+ points.

[CLK]

This is looking more and more like Feb. 3rd, 4 hr MACD has the potential to go to -60. Could see ES 2450 today.

 

 

https://invst.ly/79pra

[CLK]

System turned, went long. Keeping my short because this is a fast market with a lot of downside potential and this could be a fake move and crash overnight.

 

Otherwise any other conditions I would just go long or short.

[CLK]

Looks like all of traders talk is biased bearish while my system quietly turns up, and my own bias prevents me from fully profiting on the signal.

 

 

I pulled this post from elite trader from a thread on price only trading:

 

"So even if someone has a strategy which can provide pretty consistent results, provided every trade is taken, there are still only 5% who can actually execute the strategy?

I can see anyone being skeptical of a strategy once they first start using it and go through that first losing stretch, but I would think that if they can overcome that obstacle and stick with the strategy back to new equity curve highs, they ought to lose any of the psychological issues they initial faced in trusting to the strategy's intrinsic long-term profitability.

When I first developed my strategy, I figured that I would try to "outguess" it by not taking certain trades. Turns out that I was not able to "outguess" it at all, so now I just take every trade. It sounds like you are saying that is actually something rare (not to pat myself on the back or anything, just trying to confirm my understanding). But if it is rare, that means that most traders are not rational, because it is not rational to not faithfully execute a strategy with positive expectancy. The only rational thing is to ride that strategy for as long as expectancy remains positive and not deviate from it one bit until that happens."

 

 

Edited by CLK, 25 April 2018 - 05:26 PM.