Member
Posted 24 April 2018 - 12:58 PM
HOUSE STOCKS - REMBERING 2008 - THE CHARTS
From the link:
At the advent of the 2008 bear market, the housing stocks died first, then the banks came apart, and then everything…
So witness TOL, DHI, HOV, KBH, LEN, MDC, NVR, PHM, and then ponder the banks and then ponder…
Not much more to say except to paraphrase Yogi Berra again: “It’s beginning to look like deja vu all over again.”
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
Member
Posted 24 April 2018 - 01:50 PM
The homebuilders peaked three years before the broader market in 2008. similar to 1929. Stocks sensitive to interest rates have been declining for months. It looks more like a typical bear market setup than 2008. It looks a lot more like 2000. Most of the money is concentrated in a handful of stocks and as many as 10-20 (as in FAANG, FAANG+MAN, FAANG+MAN+BAT, or MTUM etf). Techs stocks are near 40 percent of total market capitalization and exceeding the total value of all stocks in Europe. Major blow-offs in biotechs, semiconductors, networkers, internets, Chinese internets, etc. 60 percent rally of 18-24 months duration at the end of a long bull as a result of QE and interest rate reductions.
Member
Posted 25 April 2018 - 09:40 AM
It is looking a lot like March. Heavy supply of treasuries @ 260-300 billion dollars being auctioned in the last week. The central banks in US, Japan, and the EU are only buying about 50-60 billion dollars a month as compared to 180 billion dollars in February 2016.
