21 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

I still think there is a rally, at least into Friday, with SPX successfully retesting the 200ma, again, and bouncing about 1.5% into the close.  

However, the markets are extremely jittery and can swing up and down, exuberance after great earnings and then down the next day, political instability; terrible, or lack of any, governance; and rising bond yields that are scaring investors.  

SPX is now in a finely balanced zone, above the 200ma, just below the 20ma, and about midway between the 50ma and 200ma. Tomorrow is a critical day; most likely, GLOBEX will be up but these gains can quickly evaporate.

Here is Tom's current market opinion: 

"The “big bear market” for stocks that market timer Tom McClellan has been expecting appears to have begun, as Tuesday’s broad selloff turned a key technical indicator down from an already negative position to convey a “promise” of lower lows.

McClellan, publisher of the McClellan Market Report, said there could be a pause in the downtrend this week, as his market-timing signals point to a minor top due on Friday. But with his “price oscillator” turning lower following the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s DJIA, +0.25%  425-point drop, and the S&P 500 index’s SPX, +0.18%  1.3% slide on Tuesday, he turned bearish for short- and intermediate-term trading styles. He has been bearish for long-term trading styles since Feb. 28.

“I have been looking for a big downturn in late April....We appear to have gotten that downturn now,” McClellan wrote in a note to clients. He said it is possible that the big down move pauses briefly in honor of the minor top signal due Friday, “but it should be a lasting and painful downtrend, heading down toward a bottom due in late August.”

His bearishness for all trading styles was a result of the McClellan Price Oscillator, a technical indicator using exponential moving averages of closing price data, turning down after it was already in negative territory, as the chart below shows"

See link below for full article.

 

https://www.marketwa...egun-2018-04-25

 

[dTraderB]

DP Bulletin #2: NDX Logs New PMO SELL Signal

All four DecisionPoint Scoreboard indexes logged ST Trend Model SELL signals yesterday and now the NDX has added insult to injury with a new PMO SELL signal. This SELL signal was generated when the NDX Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) crossed below its signal line.

http://stockcharts.c...ell-signal.html

[dTraderB]

SPX daily chart

50ma     2688

20ma     2649

Today's close   ----> 2640

200ma  2609

 

[dTraderB]

Everyone's watching the 10-year yield, but this is the real rate that matters

• Investors have been fascinated with the rise of the 10-year Treasury yield above 3 percent, but the 2-year note is probably telling a more interesting story.
• With market volatility on the rise, the shorter-duration note's 2.5 percent yield makes for an attractive risk-free alternative to stocks.
• Investors over the past month have taken $868 million out of ETFs that focus on U.S. stocks while pouring $5.2 billion into funds that trade in short-duration bonds.

Jeff Cox | @JeffCoxCNBCcom

 

Published 10 Hours Ago   Updated 4 Hours Ago

"While everyone on Wall Street is pounding the table over the rising 10-year yield, the 2-year note rose above 2.5 percent Wednesday, a level it last closed at August 2008, just a month before the financial crisis imploded with the collapse of Lehman Brothers"

 

https://www.cnbc.com...the-2-year.html

[Geomean]

Thanks for the posts. McClellan’s and Swenlin’s work is well respected and helpful.

[da_cheif]

Thanks for the posts. McClellan’s and Swenlin’s work is well respected and helpful.

both are tracked by timer digest.......

[da_cheif]

I still think there is a rally, at least into Friday, with SPX successfully retesting the 200ma, again, and bouncing about 1.5% into the close.  

However, the markets are extremely jittery and can swing up and down, exuberance after great earnings and then down the next day, political instability; terrible, or lack of any, governance; and rising bond yields that are scaring investors.  

SPX is now in a finely balanced zone, above the 200ma, just below the 20ma, and about midway between the 50ma and 200ma. Tomorrow is a critical day; most likely, GLOBEX will be up but these gains can quickly evaporate.

Here is Tom's current market opinion: 

"The “big bear market” for stocks that market timer Tom McClellan has been expecting appears to have begun, as Tuesday’s broad selloff turned a key technical indicator down from an already negative position to convey a “promise” of lower lows.

McClellan, publisher of the McClellan Market Report, said there could be a pause in the downtrend this week, as his market-timing signals point to a minor top due on Friday. But with his “price oscillator” turning lower following the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s DJIA, +0.25%  425-point drop, and the S&P 500 index’s SPX, +0.18%  1.3% slide on Tuesday, he turned bearish for short- and intermediate-term trading styles. He has been bearish for long-term trading styles since Feb. 28.

“I have been looking for a big downturn in late April....We appear to have gotten that downturn now,” McClellan wrote in a note to clients. He said it is possible that the big down move pauses briefly in honor of the minor top signal due Friday, “but it should be a lasting and painful downtrend, heading down toward a bottom due in late August.”

His bearishness for all trading styles was a result of the McClellan Price Oscillator, a technical indicator using exponential moving averages of closing price data, turning down after it was already in negative territory, as the chart below shows"

See link below for full article.

 

https://www.marketwa...egun-2018-04-25

 

looks more oversold than it was in 16 ...looks very bullish to me

[Data]

A lot of people are looking for decline now.   The presidential election cycle 2nd year and the seasonal patterns both match up. Triangles, H&S, Three dives to the top, Triple tops, and many other similar patterns have been present in a lot of the indices.   

[dTraderB]

Bought VXX a4 42.20

Looking to build a LONG position in VXX before the next leg down

NOT A DAY TRADE

[Harapa]

Bought VXX a4 42.20

Looking to build a LONG position in VXX before the next leg down

NOT A DAY TRADE

If behavior of underlying index (available publicly) during 2007-2009 period is any guide, holding VXX on long term basis is neither a profitable venture nor a productive hedge. Also, after spiking >100% (as was the case in JAN-FEB period)  VXX has never gone back to same level since its inception. Caution is warranted.