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Turn Risk Window Tuesday and Wednesday the 1st and 2nd


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 29 April 2018 - 01:52 PM

My risk window trading tool says the most likely days for a turn or acceleration of the current trend this week are Tuesday and Wednesday the 1st and 2nd of May. 

 

The action during last week's risk windows was a disappointment.  The window on the 26th looked really good on paper, but appears to have failed to identify a serious turn unless Monday is down sharply.  And again the indexes have not managed to escape the triangles that have held them captive for so long.  Maybe this week, or the next.  

 

Regards,

Douglas 



#2 bighouse1006

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Posted 29 April 2018 - 03:42 PM

Douglas, this risk window trading tool is it proprietary? Or are you using a platform? I liked both the calls last week. Monday marking a high and Thursday being a continuation higher with the gap up. I think we will be sharply higher until Tuesday. I am also using the top of Thursdays gap as support on a closing basis. Appreciate the updates!

#3 da_cheif

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Posted 29 April 2018 - 03:59 PM

Douglas, this risk window trading tool is it proprietary? Or are you using a platform? I liked both the calls last week. Monday marking a high and Thursday being a continuation higher with the gap up. I think we will be sharply higher until Tuesday. I am also using the top of Thursdays gap as support on a closing basis. Appreciate the updates!

he.s prolly a clx student as the 10 day clx bottoms on wed....the 30 day clx however is pointing up



#4 dasein

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Posted 29 April 2018 - 06:27 PM

Douglas - did you change / simplify yr name?


best,
klh

#5 Douglas

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Posted 30 April 2018 - 01:21 AM

BigHouse 1006, there is nothing secret about what I do.   I track the dates of a lot of publicly published cycles, periodic events, top/bottom calling indicators, etc. that seem to be regularly coincident with market turns.  I plug all their predictions into a big calendar EXCEL spreadsheet, add a very subjective weighting factor depending on how often each has lied to me and then add up the total for each trading day.  I know, it's a royal pain in the keister, but it does catch some turns.  The theory behind it is quite simple.  A lot of folks follow these same market affecting risks and act on them.  I highlight days which have the highest number of  potential market moving risks.  It doesn't always work, but it does surprisingly frequently.  When it does fail, it often coincides with sharp moves in the direction of the current trend.  I theorize that this is the result of traders who have taken positions based on these risk factors that I track and were forced to reverse their position when the turn didn't work out  creating an acceleration in the current trend. If I had the resources, I would love to expand the universe of what I track to improve the turn tool's performance, but I frankly spend too much time on this as it is. 

 

Dasein, I don't understand your question.  Every since I started posting here at FF, I have used "Douglas".  

 

Regards,

Douglas



#6 Douglas

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Posted 01 May 2018 - 09:43 AM

Well, it looks like the Thursday the 26th risk window did tag a closing high after all in the DJIA.  I take back all the terrible things I said about that risk window.  I guess the current risk window today and tomorrow will catch a low unless the Apple that falls from the tree this evening is rotten, then an acceleration down might happen.  Adam's, Newton's and the market's fates all seem to hinge on that pomme fruit.   

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 01 May 2018 - 09:43 AM.


#7 bighouse1006

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Posted 01 May 2018 - 03:50 PM

Low was today, Yesterdays low is support. Continuation tomorrow.