127 replies to this topic

[Waver]

Back above 2705.  Compared to the recent recent 4 months of tops, this top is different.  It has a lot more staying power and along with cumulative breadth continuously making new all time highs.

 

I think we are in the 'Buy The Dip' environment now.

[EntropyModel]

Backtest of the breakdown gap or turn back up?

 

Essentially we are 'trendless' here on the SWing here now. We are moving in zig-zag's up/down off the ST signals,

and now quite a few gaps making it extra tricky.

 

I expect this to continue for now.  

[EntropyModel]

The 'bots are running wild today.. has classic signature I look for ..so when it ends, I expect a sharp pullback, and that

is likely getting close now here.(SPX 2727) Then we'll see 'what is what' - I wd expect a dropas far as 2707, or even into the gap, hard to believe

as that is right now ...   I cd be wrong of course but nothing on my system see's a high odds trending swing up here.

So high odds I see we continue to be stuck in this nasty whipsawing range.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 30 May 2018 - 01:02 PM.

[EntropyModel]

I try to focus on the ST signals/setup I have in this thread - but, at various points the  IT trend even the bull/bear cycle trend are relevant, this 

is one of those times here.

 

I was hoping to go over the following longer term setup charts - and will look to do it tomorrow now the ST setups have executed as expected.

 

Now, please be aware, the devil is somewhat in the detail, and I will have to make a video or two to explain the detail ..these charts are general

 a high level overview. 

 

This copied from my blog over weekend with a few comments - 

PLease be aware that this is labelled in wave counts but

1. I don't strickly follow Elliot Wave labelling - I prefer to use SIZE of labelsl to indicate degree because EW labels frankly suck and uneccessarily complicated.

2. Wave counts contain no inherent information about the future, they are NOT predictive, a mistake so many make - what they do is help define the most

likely bullish and bearish road maps ...and there is AWALYS a bullish and bearish setup as here.

 

Here are the 3 charts, I might think of another one, but these counts have been in my mind since April and nothing has changed them, so that's
usually good indication they are on right track.

>> There is no 'right count' - ALL are RIGHT - they are all valid ...eventually price will select one but we are not there yet. 

The 'bullish' one ...of sorts..likely lead to truncation short of ATH on some indexes ...we saw infact this exact waveform in year 2000 if
you want to look for a comparison.
- this wd be pretty horrible, as be months of complex choppy actions ( see year 2000)
www.screencast.com/t/CKWdd6vqV9

The IT bearish one ...
www.screencast.com/t/NacIuamOlcym

The really bearish one 
www.screencast.com/t/ZjitGaon3f


DO I favor one of these? not really... the next swing move might change that ...but until price does 'something' to rule out one, I believe all 3 are equally

valid where I sit right now. Ultimately though, the 1st and 3rd are extremely bearish long term, only the 2nd (AB ..C down ) is 'bullish' at least into 2019.

 

Discussion of the 3 IT/bull bear counts

 

the ABC 4th wave of primary bull

https://www.screencast.com/t/QpJUFIjU

 

The Ending diagonal 5th

https://www.screencast.com/t/KDzW78qP

 

The 1....2 bearish count

https://www.screenca...om/t/Xwcb8IqDc2

Edited by Entropy3.0, 30 May 2018 - 03:39 PM.

[EntropyModel]

The 'bots are running wild today.. has classic signature I look for ..so when it ends, I expect a sharp pullback, and that

is likely getting close now here.(SPX 2727) Then we'll see 'what is what' - I wd expect a dropas far as 2707, or even into the gap, hard to believe

as that is right now ...   I cd be wrong of course but nothing on my system see's a high odds trending swing up here.

So high odds I see we continue to be stuck in this nasty whipsawing range.

 

Sharp pullback as expected - now just have to see how far it runs , should take bit more time.

 

* support 1st KP moved up from 2707 to 2711 (hit this AM) so chance for 'bounce' here, a move below 2708-2711

will high odds signal a drop into the gap and to 2690 area or lower.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 31 May 2018 - 09:26 AM.

[EntropyModel]

Actually hit 2707 on the nose ..and now the bounce ...so now we'll see ..don' t have clear ST read here, but ST signals puts

higher odds this is bounce short of yesterdays high than a new up leg. Comp looks to me to be still completing a pattern I showed

but has gone into a 'rinse repeat' cycle as often occurs.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 31 May 2018 - 10:44 AM.

[EntropyModel]

Yep - and the ST signal is only just rolling to sell - so as I said TIME wise, there will be down pressure rest of today maybe into tomorrow ASSUMING 

we are NOT in a strong swing up , which has been my 'assumption'( i've mentioned, that is part of swing signal - to look at how market reacts to ST signals ..sort of 'bottom up')

 

I wish I cd show the ST system signals but I can't - this is one of the few I can, its fairly clear I wd say the 'buy/sells' ..and is a good approximation to the full signal.

 

I am looking for a drop into the gap as far at 2695, maybe 2690 here ...that is another ST Key Pivot of important on the Swing ...so will look at ST signal if we test it.

I would have to say this market is a SOB at the moment except for ST traders like myself, even then its one of the more difficult periods for a while, I wish I cd

say I expect it get 'easier' with a trending move or clearer pivots..but as I went over on videos, I'm doubting it alas, and market dynamics I use on my models actually

cd make it worse ( due to liquidity restriction over summer)...i'm planning lots of vacations for June, July LOL

 

https://www.screencast.com/t/jAtkOxHP

Edited by Entropy3.0, 31 May 2018 - 11:44 AM.

[EntropyModel]

Anecdotally - I notice retail 'giving up' at the moment, and I see it in data I look at, the normally 'swing/trend' retail traders are now trying to time the ST moves.

This means I might have to rethink my 'range' expectations, because usually just when retail crowd lose interest/become day traders, we get an 'exciting' trending move.

If we do, I still expect it is down but for now its just case of following each ST signal, but, eventually, one of those will 'fail' in direction of a trending move .

I don't think were there yet - but 2690 is the swing KP support, below there swing bears wd have another shot.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 31 May 2018 - 12:12 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Looks bearish ST to me still - maybe a 'b' wave currently, and ST sell signal hasn't run its course.

Beyond ST - I now think Comp, RUT, SOX are the ones to look at ...they look strongly to be topping out from a long pattern here,
with maybe one more down, up sequence into early next week..more on that if/when setup completes.

[EntropyModel]

Yep - the gapping, whipsawing bot driven silliness continues LOL 

 

I'm looking as said for this to be 'b' wave up ...so failing at or below yesterdays highs, then dropping again to complete ST sell signal.

 

* 4th day in row with opposite directional move kicked off with a gap, fun! Also last 2 moves fell few pts short of targets, typical

of whipsaw bot environment - good time to plan vacations as said :-)

Edited by Entropy3.0, 01 June 2018 - 08:51 AM.