127 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

 

 

High odds we are entering a narrowing range, with fast V reverses within 2620-2680 range. 

 

 

YEP! and this  is another fast whipsaw up here.

 

Have some buy signals, but never properly triggered - market is moving too fast now for my system so just patiently wait for next setup.

 

I expect this ST trading market to continue for a while as said before a decisive trending move...what I call 'getting traders off the bus'.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 03 May 2018 - 12:04 PM.

[EntropyModel]

I can update ST setups now since 2590 held -

Previous -

https://www.screenca.../t/z91260rQZVqQ

 

 here is new the chart, its narrowing down to just a couple of setups now!

www.screencast.com/t/RPkVw8MH

 

If we rollover here again below 2640 without reaching that 2655-2660 area is very bearish, though, that's lower odds - I only mark the highest odds

but in such a fast V whipsaw market its quite possible we V down again today.

 

Swing signal remains on sell as posted from 2700 area, and I don't see anyway that turns without a test of 2560 and high odds 2500 as i've said for sometime,

so this is more about just trying to determine the path to it - I remain Swing/IT bearish for now.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 03 May 2018 - 12:30 PM.

[EntropyModel]

We are entering the critical TIME window here for a number of price pattern setups I have.

 

Perversely, the more we bounce here, the more swing/IT bearish it likely is. Whereas, a bounce limited to 2650-2655 that drops down to 2570 actually

has a high odds chance of being an IT low due to a high odds pattern, though, I would need to see hourly swing buy signal coincident with that test.

 

So on the ST setup chart - 

Setup 1 - Bounce to 2650-2655 then drop to 2560-2670  and put in IT low.

Setup 2 - Bounce to 2680-2690, then drop hard to 2560-2570 as well, but NOT an IT low, and after bounce here, drop to 2500 or lower.

 

Those are the two highest odds pattern setups I have. A 3rd not marked

Setup 3 - I put this lower odds, but  in this case tomorrow we fail at the open, not even breaking above 2640, and roll over, that one

wd be nasty, but it wouldn't change anything, same deal, i'd be looking for bounce 2570+-10 but again, it wd NOT be IT low.

 

Timing wise, if there is going to be a bigger bounce as per setups 1 & 2 it ought to come here now,  fri and maybe into monday.

 

FYI - some background to where these setups come from:

This is based on a large number of things, but those that have followed my work for years know I've explained it in detail, but for now, the simplest explanation is I combine:

 - Price patterns : like the idea of say 'head and shoulder' but these patterns are based on proprietary patterns i've identified, some of which are fractal based, and some of what I call Bot' Footprints (BFs')

 - A signal buy/sell system - which uses many signals, each independent, looking for agreement for Key Pivots ( the circles) and direction out of them, this again is mostly proprietary so I can't show most of it.

 

The price patterns are 'setups', and the Key pivots are the ideal entry/exit points and used to calculate risk/reward, and the signals are for direction ( and calculate confidence in setup - low, or high probability)

 

Trading wise for this move: I am position short, looking to buy bounce as hedge where I can identify them, until I get next IT buy setup.

 

[EntropyModel]

There we go 2650 - that was min target for both setups.

 

I don't have ST sell signal yet, so, high odds we move bit higher or spend more time churning up here.

 

Ideal high for bounce setup 1 is 2655-2660.

ST KP support is 2638, so shd stay above that ..or that is sell warning.

 

I'd expect the bounce to get choppier now, with some minor pullbacks then higher highs ..into that first KP 2655-2660.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 04 May 2018 - 10:19 AM.

[EntropyModel]

OK - there we go, and now we enter the decision circle ..turn back down, or runup to next circle shown in last ST road map.

 

https://www.screencast.com/t/Z6hs8qX8

 

Signal are now Triggered for sell - but price has to turn down .. 2646 is first KP. 

[EntropyModel]

VIX still needs to drop a bit here at least under 15, probably toward 14.

 

My read is we need to spend more time up here...and likely 'they' ( whoever 'they' are LOL ..i'll say 'the bots') will tag 2660, and likely spike us above say 2665 even if just for 5-30min, to take

out stops then reverse us down.

 

This is pure ST traders market, folks are loading up every move like its either a crash of '87 or runup of 1999 ..its neither, and very low odds we get a trending move just yet

as I said days ago .expect fast whipsaw and market has delivered! ( the REASON for the whipsaw - is that higher order trends like swing, IT, bull/bear are trying to make 'decisions' here

some are still going up, others want to go down..)

Edited by Entropy3.0, 04 May 2018 - 11:45 AM.

[EntropyModel]

I can't show alot of my stuff, but this signal is very useful - the Chase-o-meter, its reached a extreme reading right here.

 

It's kind of hard to explain on just a chart, so here is short video to explain it for anyone interested.

 

https://www.screencast.com/t/85h3YLuzN

Edited by Entropy3.0, 04 May 2018 - 12:18 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Tagged 2665 ... but still don't have that drop in VIX I need ...so looks high odds now decision is to next circle 2680-2690

There is also KP a@ 2670 where it may pause.

 

This rules out the bullish IT setup I had for setup1, so I now favor setup 2.

[EntropyModel]

I'm now getting first Sell signals - so despite being a strong trend up day, I believe 2670 will hold for now(into close) and cd even pullback into the close.

But its still not a great sell setup just yet.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 04 May 2018 - 02:39 PM.

[Waver]

Still thinking 2680-2690 for Monday?  Get enough of a sell signal?