127 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

 

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* The ONE St thing I shd add - if we drop into the gap on SPX last 30mins, that is more ST bearish, and I cd even see a gap down island reversal tomorrow

whereas if gap holds into close, or runup into close, I expect more b.s. toward that 2750 gap close.

 

 

Which is ..what we got ...and now back to same as yesterday ..watch the gap @ 2724 into the close...if it holds, we can still repeato again up here toward 2750...

if gap starts to close, chance of gap down reversal as yesterday.

 

Bit of a strange market last 2 days ...but I see nothing to change my swing or IT view so far.

 

* Last 10min has a setup for what I call a PUSH signal - if we run only down or up for those 10 mins it signals a high odds continuation move, so here, if we drop 

last 10 below 2720, high odds we gap or run down tomorrow AM. 

Edited by Entropy3.0, 22 May 2018 - 02:52 PM.

[Waver]

The downdraft has finally started.
I say bottom is June 4/5 and then a much more sustained rally. Imo

[EntropyModel]

The downdraft has finally started.
I say bottom is June 4/5 and then a much more sustained rally. Imo

 

OK thx Waver - your FF duly noted :-)

 

I need to see this AM bounce fail, and break 2690 as said to get Swing sell - this cd be just more ST chop otherwise,

though time wise my stuff is starting to lean more heavily to swing high in this timeframe.

[Waver]

it held and rallied nicely.

[EntropyModel]

it held and rallied nicely.

 

Yes, I got ST buy signals, which are cycling toward sell but not there yet, so tomorrow is another chance for us to runup to close

that gap @ 2750, probably the LAST chance. 

Edited by Entropy3.0, 23 May 2018 - 06:04 PM.

[EntropyModel]

THIS is a DIFFICULT market to call on the ST at the moment, at least on my system. My ST signals are getting whiplash here LOL

 

The market is following the short term LQ signals like a faithful puppy last few days - no question this market will go up if LQ goes up, and will drop if it doesn't.

Unfortunately, the short term LQ signals are also whiplashing, so that's not much help.

 

However, the longer term LQ signal are rolling over - so I still give the edge, that EVENTUALLY, and maybe we have all lost interest by that point :-) ..we

will breakdown to at least test KP 2690 ..I can't see another swing up leg without that.( its very low odds) ...of course, we cd still runup to close gap

at 2750 first, I cd even see setup for run to 2770 ....so, its tricky on the ST for sure and I don't see any good high odds risk/reward setup here

until market makes its intention clearer by making a move, or signals line up better ...so its 'infinite patience' mode for me. :-)

[Waver]

Nasdaq and the SP500 has been ranged bound for 10 days.

If there is a breakout above 2742, I cannot imagine it reversing back down below 2700.

But yea the market is going to do what it is going to do when it is going to do it.

[EntropyModel]

Nasdaq and the SP500 has been ranged bound for 10 days.

If there is a breakout above 2742, I cannot imagine it reversing back down below 2700.

But yea the market is going to do what it is going to do when it is going to do it.

 

Most 'obvious' breakouts' have failed in this market for sometime, like the current one.  Since March, we've had 5 moves of 5% in opposite directions!

 

My view is Price alone isn't enough, because, there's a reason when/why breakouts fail or succeed - main ones being liquidity, and 'the bus'.

If the 'breakout bus' is fully loaded, its extremely rare for it to continue which is also the problem right now ( I mentioned this a few days ago)

The only time that isn't true, is when tidal wave of LQ occurs, which we don't have here at least for now.

 

My tag line used to say 'think like the criminals', which also refers to thinking 'what would traders LEAST expect', because, in our markets on 

major indexes that is generally what occurs.

 

That said, as my new tag line says, I just follow my system, but when the system like now is not clear, I fall back on the above.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 24 May 2018 - 02:19 PM.

[EntropyModel]

On the Daily, this is one setup I now see .

Note. the purple path is NOT to TIME scale, it would likely take into Aug/Sept to play out.

 

https://www.screenca...om/t/2kIDsnObGi

[Waver]

Interesting path
And yea good point, alleged break outs have failed.
Rough market to trade thats for sure