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70% Probability we open lower tomorrow


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#1 kinga200

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 03:03 PM

The $SPX could not break out from its VST resistance and closed below the lower end of support at 2,640. AAPL as well could not break out of its VST resistance and closing at the lower end of VST support.  Short term this is over. AND IMHO longer term as well.  Again, I think this has been distribution since late January top.

 

I think this set up is a very high probability.



#2 prognosticator

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 07:13 PM

In agreement with regard to distribution since January top.

 

Within one day or so short term direction should be revealed and my position is that direction is upward. Since you put forth only opinion without charts, I will do the same.

 

The idea that the market lives or dies with AAPL should be dismissed as there are plenty of other vehicles available to "prime the pump" and those attempting to shape direction are well versed on their use.

 

Up we go go from here.



#3 K Wave

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 08:19 PM

Now that earnings and Fed are out of the way, we may finally get a directional move going out of this wedgie...

 

my guess is that it starts overnight tonight...


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#4 kinga200

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 10:41 PM

In agreement with regard to distribution since January top.
 
Within one day or so short term direction should be revealed and my position is that direction is upward. Since you put forth only opinion without charts, I will do the same.
 
The idea that the market lives or dies with AAPL should be dismissed as there are plenty of other vehicles available to "prime the pump" and those attempting to shape direction are well versed on their use.
 
Up we go go from here.


I have posted my system bf with option positions real time. Just didn't have time this time.
Not saying AAPL is the KEY BUT it sure was on the way up, along with the other usually suspects. And my system is not 100%, it's been about 70%.

We will see tomorrow. I could be wrong but earlier I posted the support levels and they were broken. Albeit very short term.

#5 K Wave

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Posted 03 May 2018 - 07:39 AM

Looks like ES 2625 is the key level now...below is danger zone, and if we get floor recapture, then time to try the long side....


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#6 K Wave

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Posted 03 May 2018 - 07:47 AM

What is striking is that we have had huge pops in AAPL FB and AMZN on earnings, yet NQ has not even been able to clear the hourly 900 MA upside.

 

Heaven forbid those 3 start to sell off now.

 

Perhaps we get a delayed reaction, and something upside starts today, but bulls are nearly outta time here, if this early weakness start to snowball...

 

In any event, the pivots are pretty clear, so should not be too hard to trade.


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#7 K Wave

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Posted 03 May 2018 - 07:52 AM

Even the NAZ summation is in a big wedgie, and right at the zero line...something is about to give soon me thinks...

 

 


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#8 kinga200

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Posted 03 May 2018 - 12:08 PM

The way it looks now I will be keeping my puts. Especially if the S&P 500 looks like it will close at 2,604 or lower at end of day.  My system is still on a sell.



#9 K Wave

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Posted 03 May 2018 - 02:26 PM

As expected, massive battle being waged for ES 2625 zone....this could decide the Intermediate term direction right here....


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy

 

 


#10 K Wave

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Posted 03 May 2018 - 02:42 PM

Intraday H&S on SPX.  bull have to take out that right shoulder to claim the ball now....


The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy