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Elevated Risk of a Turn on Monday and Tuesday the 7th and 8th


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 06 May 2018 - 02:03 PM

My risk window system projects that there is an elevated risk of turn or acceleration of the current trend in the DJIA on Monday the 7th and Tuesday the 8th of May.

 

Last week's closing low in the DJIA occurred on Wednesday the 2nd inside last week's risk window. 

 

The DJIA continues to gyrate within a somewhat symmetrical triangle.  As of Friday the 4th of May my trading system is on a buy signal.  I'm waiting on the late April pivot stop to be broken before I put my money where my system's mouth is.  

 

Regards,

Douglas



#2 bighouse1006

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Posted 06 May 2018 - 09:06 PM

Appreciate the update!

#3 Douglas

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Posted 07 May 2018 - 01:47 AM

My cracked crystal ball says that this Wednesday & Thursday's release of the inflation numbers is one of the events which will determine if a turn takes place early this week in the current risk window. Gasoline is up something like 25% year-over-year. The BLS numbers downplay the impact of energy on inflation (I guess they all ride bikes), but even they will have difficulty papering over the broader impact of such a large increase.  I guess I can take solace in knowing that if magically the inflation numbers are statistically massaged into submission, at least the trading system's jump back into the pool last Friday will turn out swimmingly.  

 

Regards,

Douglas