This week my risk window system indicates that the highest risk for a turn or acceleration of the current trend occurs on Tuesday the 15th and Friday the 18th of May.
Last week's risk window on the 7th and 8th tagged a somewhat weak acceleration event. The DJIA rose into the risk window right up to the downward trend line drawn over previous tops, hesitated and then turned down. Late in the day Tuesday as the risk window closed the DJIA bottomed and turned up. The next day the DJIA moved higher breaking through the top trend line forcing shorts who had seen the same risks I track to cover. The move up was persistent but not explosive. By the end of the week the upward momentum appeared to be waning.
I was dead wrong about the inflation numbers released last week. I thought the sharp increase over the last year in the price of energy, food, insurance and just about everything else that I actually have to buy would finally come through in the numbers. Wrong. The inflation numbers spit out after some rather amazing mastication of the data indicated that there is actually virtually no inflation despite what I actually spend. I'm clearly being deluded by the sharply rising prices that I'm paying.