Jump to content



Photo

Elevated Risk of a Turn on Tuesday the 15th and Friday the 18th


  • Please log in to reply
3 replies to this topic

#1 Douglas

Douglas

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 935 posts

Posted 13 May 2018 - 05:02 AM

This week my risk window system indicates that the highest risk for a turn or acceleration of the current trend occurs on Tuesday the 15th and Friday the 18th of May.  

 

Last week's risk window on the 7th and 8th tagged a somewhat weak acceleration event.  The DJIA rose into the risk window right up to the downward trend line drawn over previous tops, hesitated and then turned down.  Late in the day Tuesday as the risk window closed the DJIA bottomed and turned up.  The next day the DJIA moved higher breaking through the top trend line forcing shorts who had seen the same risks I track to cover.  The move up was persistent but not explosive.  By the end of the week the upward momentum appeared to be waning.   

 

I was dead wrong about the inflation numbers released last week.  I thought the sharp increase over the last year in the price of energy, food, insurance and just about everything else that I actually have to buy would finally come through in the numbers.  Wrong.  The inflation numbers spit out after some rather amazing mastication of the data indicated that there is actually virtually no  inflation despite what I actually spend.  I'm clearly being deluded by the sharply rising prices that I'm paying.  

 

Regards,

Douglas



#2 ryanoo

ryanoo

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 105 posts

Posted 13 May 2018 - 08:34 AM

 

 

 

there is actually virtually no  inflation despite what I actually spend.  I'm clearly being deluded by the sharply rising prices that I'm paying.  

 

Felt the same. I spend more on things like gas and alcohol and I am sure wife spends more on the stuff she buys and on household bills too, but there is no inflation according to government, the greatest fake news of all?  Even my taxes are going up thanks to the new tax law that abolished property tax deduction.  My normally quiet neighborhood has many houses for sale -- they don't want to pay the extra tax.

 

 


Edited by ryanoo, 13 May 2018 - 08:37 AM.


#3 bighouse1006

bighouse1006

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 525 posts

Posted 13 May 2018 - 09:02 AM

My cell for a sharp move higher was a week late. I think we consolidate last weeks move this week. I think we will get nice one day reactions on Tue, and Friday. Thanks for the update!

#4 Douglas

Douglas

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 935 posts

Posted 13 May 2018 - 01:30 PM

Inflation is the only way to pay back a 21 trillion dollar deficit growing bigger by a trillion or more every year.  They have no choice but to make the currency worthless because even 21 trillion times zero is still zero.  At some point the cost of living will impoverish so many people that there will be a public reaction, an American Arab Spring if you will, but until then anyone without assets that rise in value with the inflation is like a frog set to boil in slowly warming water.   

 

Regards,

Douglas


Edited by Douglas, 13 May 2018 - 01:30 PM.