12 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

Unless SPX closes below 2700, this market will rally. 

The market has had several reasons to decline but has been extremely resilient. 

No, this is not a permanent state, but on a ST basis the bias is towards the upside target of SPX 2760.

 

Intraday, an hourly close below 2700 is bearish; daily close below 2700 is bearish, and the 20ma cross below 50ma on daily SPX is bearish. 

 

But, it's UP until the market proves otherwise. 

 

DP Weekly Wrap: Bullish Flag Forming

by Carl Swenlin

Back in the day, options expiration days were characterized by high volatility and exceptionally high volume; however, in recent years the market stays relatively calm, and the high volume only appears at the end of each quarter. These expectations were not disappointed in today's trading. In fact, the entire week was calm, as price worked sideways into a flag formation. Volume for the last two weeks has been somewhat thin, which implies that market participants are not fully committed to the rally. Nevertheless, from the April low a rising trend has been established (a bottom above aRead More

 

[dTraderB]

IT Trend Model: BUY as of 5/11/2018

LT Trend Model: BUY as of 4/1/2016

SPY Daily Chart: Another perspective shown on this daily chart is SPY's relationship to the cyclical bull market rising trend line. Also, we can see how SPY has broken out of a symmetrical triangle and is consolidating just above it. If it breaks down from that support, that would be a problem.

http://stockcharts.c...ag-forming.html

[dTraderB]

May 17, 2018 at 06:32 PM

DP Bulletin #3: Trend Models on BUY Signals in All Timeframes as Dow Triggers ITTM BUY

by Erin Swenlin

The Dow was the laggard but it finally managed an Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signal today when the 20-EMA crossed above the 50-EMA. This moves all four Scoreboards' Trend Models to BUY signals in the short-, intermediate- and long-terms. The last time all three timeframes were all on Trend Model BUY signals was March 13th. This could actually be considered worrisome since it was shortly after March 13th that the rally failed and the correction resumed. I'm not looking for that. If you read the "DP Alert" I wrote yesterday, you'll see what is stirring my optimism. Read More 

May 17, 2018 at 06:32 PM

DP Bulletin #3: Trend Models on BUY Signals in All Timeframes as Dow Triggers ITTM BUY

by Erin Swenlin

The Dow was the laggard but it finally managed an Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signal today when the 20-EMA crossed above the 50-EMA. This moves all four Scoreboards' Trend Models to BUY signals in the short-, intermediate- and long-terms. The last time all three timeframes were all on Trend Model BUY signals was March 13th. This could actually be considered worrisome since it was shortly after March 13th that the rally failed and the correction resumed. I'm not looking for that. If you read the "DP Alert" I wrote yesterday, you'll see what is stirring my optimism. Read More 

[dTraderB]

Interesting article on VIX

I am looking for VIX to spike down below 12 on this SPX rally; if it does not, then a VIX rally will ensue (SPX down)

 

Known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” VIX is followed by a multitude of market participants; its levels and trends have become part of the common language of market commentary. Unfortunately, the meaning of a given VIX level is frequently misunderstood. Our recent paper, “Reading VIX: Does VIX Predict Future Volatility?” provides market participants with simple rules that translate VIX levels into potentially more meaningful predictions or measures of market sentiment.

This document serves as an introduction to, and summary of, “Reading VIX: Does VIX Predict Future Volatility?” bypassing some of the academic rigor of the original in order to be more accessible to the practitioner. Exhibit 1 provides a key highlight: the extent to which our analysis could have provided market participants with a useful estimation of future changes in S&P 500® realized volatility, one month in advance.

 

https://us.spindices...-to-reading-vix

[alexnewbee]

Short the Monday spike. IMHO

[dTraderB]

Quite possible there will be selling of this and other rallies,  but the market has been coiling and compressing with a relatively low ATR (avg True Range) during the past few sessions and it may be ready to break out after there has been some reassurance that the US-China trade war has been shelved. I don't buy that since Trump and his babysitters are trying to have their cake and eat it, an impossible feat. 

However, the market has been itching to rally so expect a move up to consume most or all of that buying power and curb the irrational exuberance of a bull market that is dying, slowly but surely, with late stage rallies that are being sold.

 

U.S., China putting trade war on hold, Treasury's Mnuchin says Economy

By Lindsay Dunsmuir and Howard Schneider WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. trade war with China is "on hold" after the world's...

 

 

[dTraderB]

The BAD NEWS: Trump has been humiliated & forced to back down on the tariffs. 
 

The GOOD NEWS: a UGE burden has been lifted from the markets. Even better, Trump has learned a good lesson and will be more sophisticated in negotiating, we hope. 

 

The BAD NEWS: The Chinese have discovered the weak point in Trump, knows where and how to squeeze him, and are going so far as to openly embarrass him by denying they have agreed to buy an additional 200 billion from the US. 

 

Markets will rally until there is something new to worry about, e.g. 10yr and 2yr yields continuing to push up, oil inflation, more trouble from those pesky Europeans etc

 

20ma on the daily SPX is good support. 

Looking to buy VXX below 33

[Harapa]

Looking to buy VXX below 33

Me, under 31

[dTraderB]

31? 

You think it gets that far down/

[Harapa]

I think before it manifests 30%+ up move  it is likely to trade <27...forum is not friendly posting images..else I will have something to support the target...