8 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

That was a strong rally off the lows as the markets interpreted the FED Minutes as dovish, even some going so far as to say the FED will "allow" inflation to rise above the 2% target. 

 

So, we are back near the top of this trading range and in NO Man's Land, neither bearish nor bullish, going up & down, making for some good day trades in a rather boring and choppy market when viewed in the daily & hourly charts, as we wait on the break out:

  -- bullish above 2745 

  -- bearish below 2720

 

Don't be surprised if the markets change their dovish interpretation of the FED Minutes and Trump goes after the Chinese re: tariffs, and taxes on auto imports from mainly Europe & Mexico.... and who knows what else.  The markets are on the edge, coiling and compressing again, and, usually, the next move after such a market condition is EXPLOSIVE, up or down. 

 

It should be bullish with thin volume  before the Memorial Day weekend but seasonality and TA don't seem to be as important as before so don't count anything in or out as far as the markets are concerned. 

 

It will be mighty interesting to see the market's reaction when any report suggests inflation was 1/4 or 1/2 point above the FED's 2% target. 

[dTraderB]

Fed minutes show support for June hike and calm about inflation outlook

https://www.marketwa...look-2018-05-23

[dTraderB]

DP Alert: Intermediate-Term Indicators Remain Bullish - Worst Could Be Over

Erin Swenlin |  May 23, 2018 at 07:04 PM

 

http://stockcharts.c...es-to-soar.html

[Data]

The CPI came out at 2.5 percent on May 10, which is about 2 weeks after the last meeting.  Home delivery is causing labor shortages and transportation costs to rise as it has in Japan.

[dTraderB]

Also, higher crude oil prices will impact on inflation etc

The earnings component of the May NFP (jobs report) will be very important.

 

https://money.usnews...out-the-economy

[dTraderB]

No, not going to say "I told you so" but the markets dipped after the official announcement of the US - N KOREA Summit cancellation.

 

All is not lost: do this from scratch, via the State Dept, negotiate the basic preliminary details, then go on the major ones. 

 

President Trump has no other choice after they insulted his VP. 

 

http://www.newsweek....ce-ruins-941852

[dTraderB]

That was a nice 4-point short ES trade. 

 

Still think the markets will rally for the rest of the week but a daily close below 2700 changes all that.

[dTraderB]

"S&P 2,728 again - they can't keep us over it but they won't let us go under it either.

Today marks two weeks at the strong bounce line and an optimist would say we're consolidating for a move up but a pragmatist would say this is all being done on low-volume BS pump jobs that are faking market highs by holding up the headline stocks while the broad market sells off - leaving the retail suckers holding the bag when the bottom ultimately falls out.

Notice how, nearly every day, we hit a high early in the day and then sell off? That's how you catch big game fish, you give them a little line and then you reel them in and then give them a little line and reel them in again - over and over until they are exhaused and you can haul them onto the boat and gut them and have them for dinner. That's what's happening to Retail Investors at the moment and the Top 1% are baiting the hooks."

-- Phil

Edited by dTraderB, 24 May 2018 - 10:37 AM.

[MaryAM]

The Fed is playing Wizard of Oz.  They are still easing by buying  government insured mortgages at record rates without checking to see if the paper they are buying is worth what they are paying with brand new unleveraged money.   Someday someone will pull the curtain back.   The FED is more theater than a central bank.