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A huge directional move is coming


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#11 CLK

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Posted 24 May 2018 - 06:55 PM

Looks like bull market action to me, the reason is the volume signature is high like it was way before the drop and this is now a double whipsaw

on stop and reverse, I thought it might. Nowhere in the correction did such a set of whipsaws occur, and next could be the third. So right

now my system is not tradeable, until a breakout. It's not a bad spot to short though about 20 points off the lows, but I think it will be a losing trade, market is too sideways to be building a top, it would be different if it was at ATH'S.

 

https://invst.ly/7jtig

 

 


Edited by CLK, 24 May 2018 - 07:03 PM.


#12 tsharp

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Posted 24 May 2018 - 09:14 PM

Looks like bull market action to me, the reason is the volume signature is high like it was way before the drop and this is now a double whipsaw

on stop and reverse, I thought it might. Nowhere in the correction did such a set of whipsaws occur, and next could be the third. So right

now my system is not tradeable, until a breakout. It's not a bad spot to short though about 20 points off the lows, but I think it will be a losing trade, market is too sideways to be building a top, it would be different if it was at ATH'S.

 

https://invst.ly/7jtig

 

 

 

After a day of back and fill... I'm also thinking the next large move is upward... SP00s up some 8-10 points tonight and there are only two more TLs overhead... once those are broken, I think the next IT rest will be up at the ~3000 level... time will tell.

 

SP00_240_5.24.18.jpg

 

Link to chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/4ng7pf43t/



#13 NAV

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Posted 25 May 2018 - 12:19 AM

Looks like bull market action to me, the reason is the volume signature is high like it was way before the drop and this is now a double whipsaw

on stop and reverse, I thought it might. Nowhere in the correction did such a set of whipsaws occur, and next could be the third. So right

now my system is not tradeable, until a breakout. It's not a bad spot to short though about 20 points off the lows, but I think it will be a losing trade, market is too sideways to be building a top, it would be different if it was at ATH'S.

 

 

 

Bifurcation points are what they are. If it was 100% predictable, nobody would be doing day jobs, working for others.

 

Right now the odds are still 70% on downside. Confirmation would be a break of SPX 2700 on daily basis.

 

30% odds are on the upside. But the odds would increase to 70% if we break SPX 2760 on a daily closing basis.

 

Yes, there have been quite a few whipsaws. I had about 4 whipsaws myself over the last 10 days. That's how it is before every major move. Within in a week, you will see a resolution to this major consolidation


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#14 libertas

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Posted 25 May 2018 - 09:23 AM

Don't ignore the elephant in the room. Look at the series of gaps in TLT.



#15 Waver

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Posted 25 May 2018 - 09:51 AM

libertas - bullish or bearish for stocks?

#16 CLK

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Posted 25 May 2018 - 11:20 AM

If this chop continues for another week I may just take the summer off, except maybe look for a gap up to short

once in awhile. It's just not worth the drawdowns waiting for something to happen in slow summer trading.


Edited by CLK, 25 May 2018 - 11:20 AM.


#17 libertas

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Posted 25 May 2018 - 11:36 AM

libertas - bullish or bearish for stocks?

Bearish



#18 saltlake

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Posted 25 May 2018 - 03:21 PM

CLX, Amen to that brotha! Im taking the summer off from daytading to reflect and decide if I want to do it anymore. Its either continue day trading or not have any friends, those who hardcore day trade the ES probably know what what mean, lol. Surprisingly I think I find more joy in the IT/LT boring trades. Like buying DPZ at 12 and selling at 70(always way to early right), or micron a couple weeks ago at 50(still holding). Of course its probably just as easy to loose at the long term game but at least I dont need a screen Im my bathroom right, lol

#19 CLK

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Posted 25 May 2018 - 06:13 PM

CLX, Amen to that brotha! Im taking the summer off from daytading to reflect and decide if I want to do it anymore. Its either continue day trading or not have any friends, those who hardcore day trade the ES probably know what what mean, lol. Surprisingly I think I find more joy in the IT/LT boring trades. Like buying DPZ at 12 and selling at 70(always way to early right), or micron a couple weeks ago at 50(still holding). Of course its probably just as easy to loose at the long term game but at least I dont need a screen Im my bathroom right, lol

 

 

I don't like watching the market all day, but I do like the opening fade the gap trades, one's you don't have to guess at, you just

take the trade no stress and double or triple then quit trading for a few days. Buy or short and hold is better in bear moves like

we just had but now I think that is over, so a trending move will start but there will be more consolidation whipsaw moves on the

way that can ruin an account if one is not careful, maybe even willing to not trade, right now this could continue, 2700 or 2740

needs to break and then maybe a good run. If ever one wanted a break from trading the summer is the best time for it because

it's usually just narrow range type trades and no big trending moves.