18 replies to this topic

[NAV]

Be prepared. More importantly, trade it and capitalize on it. Odds suggest at this point that it will be to the downside (70% downside odds and 30% upside odds). First leg of any bear correction (Feb correction in this case) is usually violent as people get caught with their pants down. The second leg is usually less violent, as folks are more prepared. But it's that preparedness that makes it more persistent. 

 

Up or down, i am willing to play either side. But i am pretty positive that it is going to be a large (5 to 10%) and persistent move. Seen this movie many times before.

 

Right now my bets are on the downside. 

[dTraderB]

Agree, NAV, that the markets will break out of this congestion zone, and it will be a big one,

 

I am still not totally convinced that it will be DOWN but today's action, so far, suggests there is strong selling and buyer's capitulation may be swift and decisive.

[NAV]

Agree, NAV, that the markets will break out of this congestion zone, and it will be a big one,

 

I am still not totally convinced that it will be DOWN but today's action, so far, suggests there is strong selling and buyer's capitulation may be swift and decisive.

 

To really see what's coming, i will give you a few clues. Look at the weekly charts. It's overbought, yet it could not break the 3/16 highs. Hell, we could not even break the IT downtrend. My IT downtrend line is at 2756 and we got a strong rejection below that. All these points to a bearish outcome. But as always i am willing to change my mind if 2756 breaks on a daily closing basis. Right now, my bets are on a big down move.

 

Sentiment is neutral, not frothy. So don't expect any crashes or quick down-slingshots. It going to be slow, directional and persistent. 

Edited by NAV, 24 May 2018 - 10:11 AM.

[12SPX]

I think its a sideways we go until fall, the volume is just anemic and you can tell by quick reactions.  Will be interesting!!

[libertas]

I just read that Goldman made $200 million in one day on the "Volmaggedon." The vol sellers seem to forget that there is another side to their trade. They are busy today, but the vol trade is dramatically asymmetric from here. Just IMO.

[andr99]

Be prepared. More importantly, trade it and capitalize on it. Odds suggest at this point that it will be to the downside (70% downside odds and 30% upside odds). First leg of any bear correction (Feb correction in this case) is usually violent as people get caught with their pants down. The second leg is usually less violent, as folks are more prepared. But it's that preparedness that makes it more persistent. 

 

Up or down, i am willing to play either side. But i am pretty positive that it is going to be a large (5 to 10%) and persistent move. Seen this movie many times before.

 

Right now my bets are on the downside. 

 

I' ve said for some time actually that the It correction started in late jan is not over. Also the targets I had for this ending bounce, have been met and I' m glad you are on the same boat as I am because you are a valuable trader and a confirmation to my trading-thoughts    

Edited by andr99, 24 May 2018 - 11:17 AM.

[pedro]

In another week or two, I can see it.

It could be the C down, to bookend the fast A down from Jan/Feb.

Or, it could be that that correction is over, 1 up out of that correction is almost done, and we have just a w2 pullback.    (my LT charts prefer this)

Or, it could be that the correction has the E wave left (of tri).     (my LT charts can't distinguish 2 down from E down.)

[redfoliage2]

I concur.  I see this market is ready for a multi-week correction to the lower boundary of the wedge.  The question is when it will start?  It's starting today or tomorrow before the upcoming long weekend or next week?

Edited by redfoliage2, 24 May 2018 - 12:05 PM.

[pedro]

"It's starting today or tomorrow before the upcoming long weekend or next week?"

 

If a key weekly trigger setup needs to reset as per standard behavior, we have two weeks minimum.

One to drop back to OS.   (we're on indicator bounce, w/o price following)

Another to provide a kickoff divergence against price.

[redfoliage2]

"It's starting today or tomorrow before the upcoming long weekend or next week?"

 

If a key weekly trigger setup needs to reset as per standard behavior, we have two weeks minimum.

One to drop back to OS.   (we're on indicator bounce, w/o price following)

Another to provide a kickoff divergence against price.

SPX daily already turned down................