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Rut is up 6% for year ....someone explain to me ......


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#1 trioderob

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Posted 24 May 2018 - 11:52 AM

if the Rut leads when investors are looking for risk and it is up 6% for the first half of year

 

1) and we got the fed talking multiple rate hikes

2) and we have rumbling of a trade war with China

3) and we just left the Iran deal

4) and we have no resolution to the Russia meddling

5) and we have skyrocketing fuel costs 

6) and we have no deal in North Korea

7) and we have problems brewing in Europe

8) and we have mid terms coming

9) and we have inflation 

10) and we just had a parabolic breakdown

 

 

then why predictions that the market is heading down ?



#2 redfoliage2

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Posted 24 May 2018 - 02:46 PM

Small caps may suffer less in the case of a trade war.  it's not leading anything, it's just leading itself.


Edited by redfoliage2, 24 May 2018 - 02:49 PM.


#3 Chilidawgz

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Posted 24 May 2018 - 03:08 PM

small caps are less dependent on overseas sales.


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#4 12SPX

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Posted 24 May 2018 - 03:23 PM

if the Rut leads when investors are looking for risk and it is up 6% for the first half of year

 

1) and we got the fed talking multiple rate hikes

2) and we have rumbling of a trade war with China

3) and we just left the Iran deal

4) and we have no resolution to the Russia meddling

5) and we have skyrocketing fuel costs 

6) and we have no deal in North Korea

7) and we have problems brewing in Europe

8) and we have mid terms coming

9) and we have inflation 

10) and we just had a parabolic breakdown

 

 

then why predictions that the market is heading down ?

What parabolic breakdown?  Very simple all of this other stuff going on is outside the US.  Trump wants more stuff done in America for America which is great for mid sized business's.



#5 libertas

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Posted 24 May 2018 - 04:16 PM

"Explain" generally means something like identify cause and effect.

 

In the case of the stock market, this cannot be done. Stock market prices are the result of a myriad of actions by people and computer algorithms. Their motivations and knowledge are unknowable.

 

All you can do is identify correlation, which is not the same thing at all. But it is the best you can do. Explanations are for financial journalists who simply make stuff up, or rely on myths, like "cash on the sidelines."



#6 hhh

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Posted 24 May 2018 - 04:25 PM

Every time someone says "cash on the sidelines" I ask them what that means. If I buy a stock, the money goes from my pocket to the other guy's. Was it on the sidelines in my pocket? If so, why isn't it now that it's in his?



#7 pdx5

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Posted 25 May 2018 - 09:57 PM

Every time someone says "cash on the sidelines" I ask them what that means. If I buy a stock, the money goes from my pocket to the other guy's. Was it on the sidelines in my pocket? If so, why isn't it now that it's in his?

All depends on if the person who sold you the stock buys another stock or puts it in his savings account. 

Also consider when person saves money from his earnings, he/she can either buy stocks or put it in

his savings account. In other words what is the ratio of cash to market value of stocks. That ratio does

not remain fixed.


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#8 flyers&divers

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Posted 27 May 2018 - 06:54 AM

Every time someone says "cash on the sidelines" I ask them what that means. If I buy a stock, the money goes from my pocket to the other guy's. Was it on the sidelines in my pocket? If so, why isn't it now that it's in his?

Cash on sidelines most often refers to institutional money not yet deployed. The little guy is not  a big factor these days. Institutions have percent allocation upper lower targets which they adhere to with discretion. As money comes in, some of it is seasonal, they may be aggressive or passive deploying it.


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#9 gm_general

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Posted 27 May 2018 - 11:39 AM

Why did so many buy tech stocks into early 2000 when it was the worst thing you could do? Momentum follows momentum, until it doesn't. I knew a guy who bought a tech mutual fund in March 2000, and he lost 50% in a short while, on a mutual fund of all things. Here we have the tax benefits, the relative lack of harm from trade war, etc, all of which causes purchasers to ignore the obvious. In a downturn, smaller companies will fair worse than big companies, and they will take a bath. I recall an article I read describing the small businesses that went bankrupt in the 2008 crash in the NY area, it was quite a list of carnage.

 

Why would such holders be concerned, you say, isn't everything fine?

 

The “smart money” is getting out of stocks at a rate that we haven’t seen since just before the financial crisis of 2008.

 

Moody’s is warning that a “particularly large wave” of junk bond defaults is coming.  And as I have written about so many times before, junk bonds are often an early warning indicator for a major financial crisis.

 

According to the FDIC, a closely watched category known as “assets of problem banks” more than tripled during the first quarter of 2018.  What that means is that some really big banks are now officially in “problem” territory.

 

U.S. Treasury bonds are having the worst start to a year since the Great Depression

 

Mortgage interest rates just hit a 7 year high, and they have been rising at the fastest pace in nearly 50 years.  This is going to be absolutely crippling for the real estate and housing industries.

 

Retail industry debt defaults have hit a record high in 2018.

 

We are on pace for the worst year for retail store closings ever.

 

Source:

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/12-indications-that-the-next-major-global-economic-crisis-could-be-just-around-the-corner



#10 tradesurfer

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Posted 27 May 2018 - 10:13 PM

You make a good point . The market has been reluctant to collapse in the face of all this bad news.

But now soon we may actually get a peace deal with NK and then head into July 4th holiday with creeping optimism. That should lead to new highs for many indices .

And then bond outflows from Europe will head into USA market further supporting it



if the Rut leads when investors are looking for risk and it is up 6% for the first half of year
 
1) and we got the fed talking multiple rate hikes
2) and we have rumbling of a trade war with China
3) and we just left the Iran deal
4) and we have no resolution to the Russia meddling
5) and we have skyrocketing fuel costs 
6) and we have no deal in North Korea
7) and we have problems brewing in Europe
8) and we have mid terms coming
9) and we have inflation 
10) and we just had a parabolic breakdown
 
 
then why predictions that the market is heading down ?