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This Week's Turn Risk Window


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#1 Douglas

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Posted 27 May 2018 - 11:36 AM

This week's risk window for a turn or acceleration of the current trend stretches from Tuesday the 29th through Thursday the 31st.  I know a window this large is pretty useless since it covers just about the whole cotton pickin' week, but that's what the system numbers say.  The window is so wide that there will probably be two sharp price actions inside it, maybe a turn in the front end and one at the back end of the window or an acceleration event thrown in just for good measure. Suffice it to say there are so many risk turns inside this window that something exciting should happen.

 

Regards,

Douglas



#2 Douglas

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Posted 29 May 2018 - 11:50 PM

Well, something exciting did happen at the front end of this risk window yesterday, a sharp test of the Jan-Mar triangle top trend line from above. 

 

This wide risk window closes tomorrow, so another reversal or an acceleration to the downside should be in the offing fairly soon.  Given the FED open mouth committee was out yesterday talking low rates to stem the dollar rally, the FED put is apparently back in play.  The front end of June with all the monthly regular buying also starts on Friday which should help support things. 

 

So I guess it's kind of hard to make the case for the downward acceleration option at the end of this risk window, but I have to keep an open mind given all the risk out there and my badly cracked crystal ball.  Also, "sell in May and go away" didn't work last year or really the year before that, so surely it must be due for a winning year. 

 

Regards,

Douglas  


Edited by Douglas, 29 May 2018 - 11:51 PM.


#3 ryanoo

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Posted 30 May 2018 - 11:33 AM

Yesterday and today are back to back Turns.  Will tomorrow be a turn or an acceleration?  Thanks for the updates as always.



#4 Douglas

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Posted 30 May 2018 - 12:42 PM

Of course as long as the risk window is open there is the danger of another turn or acceleration event, but having said that, the move up today certainly satisfies the two actions in the big risk window that I was expecting.   Given the calendar and the friendly FED, I assume the market will again just grind higher from here.   The next important risk window is probably next Wednesday June 6th, but that is preliminary.  I'll crunch the numbers this weekend to get a better read.  Monday the 4th is also in hot contention, but it's too early to state for sure.

 

Regards,

Douglas