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Analogues timing


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#1 bigbud

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 03:40 PM

Nov.07

May.08

April.10

April.11

(March.12)

July.15

hmmm Sept.2000 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 04:35 PM

Sounds interesting, what is this about? Market turn dates? 



#3 bigbud

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 12:11 AM

yes, potential/unconfirmed analogous ~6 month cycles

Include the ~3,5 year cycle one can norrow down to

Sept.00

Nov.07

April.11

(July.14) July.15

and now

A top needs a left-translated cycle, which implies a top right now (allow another ~1 week overshoot).

Rallying further from here implies market will continue sideways/up until Dec.


Edited by bigbud, 14 June 2018 - 12:11 AM.


#4 Data

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 06:47 AM

2007 Bear Steans collapse started in November..  

2008 Lehman Brothers collapse started in May.  

Each made their last bounce the month before and then collapsed in about 3-4 months.  Some of the other dates have to do with QE ending in the US and EU which resulted in quick 2-3 month collapse before a new one was started.



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 07:17 AM

Thanks. 



#6 robo

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 11:16 AM

yes, potential/unconfirmed analogous ~6 month cycles

Include the ~3,5 year cycle one can norrow down to

Sept.00

Nov.07

April.11

(July.14) July.15

and now

A top needs a left-translated cycle, which implies a top right now (allow another ~1 week overshoot).

Rallying further from here implies market will continue sideways/up until Dec.

Interesting!  Thanks.



#7 robo

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 02:02 PM

LT data. The Fed rate is the gray histogram.  LOL... the data that went to almost zero for several years.... Right below the red WTF!

 

 


Edited by robo, 14 June 2018 - 02:07 PM.


#8 Data

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Posted 16 June 2018 - 10:11 PM

If you follow analogs, this one is interesting.  Most of the decline would be finished by August.  If you watch the 1987 WSW show with Marty Zweig, he compared that environment to 1946 with no real impact on the economy as there was no recession in either case.

 

https://www.mrci.com...al/wdji1946.php

 

Aug 2015 and Jan 2016 may also be similar as mentioned above.  Strong dollar.  There was a sharp downthrust of crude oil that preceded each low.  Don't think sovereign wealth funds are in trouble this time though.