14 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

This could be the start of a significant decline or merely another minor pullback before this very impressive rally resumes. 

 

Bulls have been extraordinarily resilient, there are more and more buyers stepping in after every pullback, they have come back after every think has been thrown at them, and one should be ready to close ad/or exit any SHORT positions when rally gets going again. 

CARL thinks we may have some more downside:

DP Weekly Wrap: Market Trying to Correct; Gold LT SELL Signal

Carl Swenlin |  June 22, 2018 at 06:33 PM

 

The market has been turned back from the horizontal resistance drawn across the March top, but it has managed to stay above the support drawn across the May tops. However, there is still the mechanism of the bearish rising wedge pattern, which is reinforced by an OBV negative divergence, and the PMO SELL signal. This setup is not immutable, but, as it stands right now, the evidence is saying to look for more downside. Let's see how that might get.

 

http://stockcharts.c...ell-signal.html

[dTraderB]

Bulls Seem Bulletproof But Downside Risk Still Outweighs Reward

https://www.investin...62218-200327287

 

 

“The market has continued to remain within its bullish trend channel from the 2015 lows which is why we only mildly reduced our overall equity exposure in February of this year. On a very short-term basis, the market is overbought so we will look for weakness next week to add further exposure to portfolios.”

There is risk to the outlook, however. With the short-term sell signal triggered last week, it does keep us cautious. However, as we have seen previously, such a signal can be reversed quickly. Also, with the 50-dma crossing above 100-dma, further support for a continued bullish advance is back in place.

Importantly, while we are indeed more “bullishly inclined” at the moment, and are willing to give the bulls a bit of “running room,” we have moved stops up. We are also keeping our tolerance for losses restricted as downside risk continues to outweigh reward over the intermediate term."

[dTraderB]

"The stock market has been unprecedentedly resilient of late despite the bears’ efforts to take it down.

The story in the stock market over the past week has been about the bears’ attempts to push prices down – and the bulls’ ability to prop them back up. As a matter of fact, in some ways, the bulls resilience over the past 3 days has been unprecedented. Consider this – in each of the 3 days from June 15-June 19, the S&P 500:

• Was down at least 0.75% at some point during the day and
• Rallied to close in the upper 85% of its daily range

How noteworthy is this 3-day feat? As the Chart Of The Day indicates, it is actually the first time the index has ever accomplished it in its nearly 70-year history."

 

More here:

 

http://jlfmi.tumblr....have-been-worse

[dTraderB]

Trimming my QQQ PUT position

[dTraderB]

Reason why I am not totally bearish is TRUMP will back down on the China trade spat before it becomes a full-fledged war. It is still in the phony fake stage

[tsharp]

Reason why I am not totally bearish is TRUMP will back down on the China trade spat before it becomes a full-fledged war. It is still in the phony fake stage

 

Yes, this will eventually work itself out, but the bull market is still in its last days... just my humble opinion...

 

Here's how I see things as of this morning's update:

 

 

Link to chart: https://postimg.cc/image/91nyk6a21/

[dTraderB]

2700 support?

[dTraderB]

Enjoy the ride down,! 

 

A busy morning, a good day, so far,

[tsharp]

I have wave-a at 67-points, so wave-c could be 1.38a or 1.62a, meaning 92-points or 108-points, respectively, if normal rules play out... therefore, 2700 or 2684, basis the SP00s, are the two targets I am watching for.

[tsharp]

I have wave-a at 67-points, so wave-c could be 1.38a or 1.62a, meaning 92-points or 108-points, respectively, if normal rules play out... therefore, 2700 or 2684, basis the SP00s, are the two targets I am watching for.

 

And this is what it might look like:  

 

 

Link to chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/5aedyd48p/