46 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

I thought I ought to start a new thread, as old one is getting very long.

 

Along with the current running ST setup, I mentioned one for a larger drop ,

if we gap down in the AM there is a setup for drop to 2580-2600 by close friday.

 

Otherwise the target remains 2680 'at some point' as its been for a week or so ( see previous thread for details.)

 

[EntropyModel]

I've updated the Setup chart to today, and for comparison the original setup and most recent.

 

Here is the original setup - pink line setup Posted May 24

https://www.screenca...om/t/2kIDsnObGi

 

We've executed all the pivot turns so far, last updated here:

https://www.screencast.com/t/KGZMJ45l

 

Current. 

https://www.screenca.../t/ZQdSwaypiiMb

 

2680 is the 'intercept' of pink line to black uptrend support line, originally wd have been 2660'ish.

The new red line - is the new setup I just mentioned on gap down in the AM.

 

System continues to put low odds any sustainable up move without either more time or price drop - signals not yet in swing buy setup.

 

 

 

[EntropyModel]

2691 this AM, close to initial 2680 target.

 

System ST signal is BUY now, but in context of continued hourly SELL.

Big spike in fear on options this AM - and chase-o-meter yesterday, but not elsewhere - so 'day traders' finally starting to chase move down, but

swing traders are still very bullish.

 

Putting that together I expect bounce attempts here, likely some choppy fib retrace to work off the signal...then a move down to test

the key pivot 2680 ..where will get the higher trend decision - we cd panic through to 2640 and still be on the pink pattern, but no more

than that I wd say. I will need to see system signals in real time at 2680 test to determine odds, to hard to say from here but daily signal

is leaning to failure through 2680 ...but, as I say, one step at a time.

 

* BTW- LQ has as expected turned down bigtime, and that is big problem for any market bounce attempt here, however, market today is holding

up relative to LQ, which is 1st bullish sign, if market can hold together while LQ drops to a low, then when LQ turns up, market will

explode higher ..but, we are not there yet on my signals.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 28 June 2018 - 10:57 AM.

[EntropyModel]

ST buy signal has been worked off now.

 

There maybe more TIME for the bounce, but price wise I expect its topping out here.

 

The close may give clue - if we drop under 2712 into the close, ST sell will be generated however its best to wait for the next open as

often they are whipsawed.  

IF we ramp up to new high into close, this is higher odds a longer time wise bounce and will last some time.

If we just drift into the close I expect a bit more weak bounce tomorrow AM then turn back down.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 28 June 2018 - 02:49 PM.

[EntropyModel]

We drifted into close, so no ST sell signal.

As expected, more time for the bounce...though, its a bit stronger that I wd have expected ..so a larger degree bounce is likely in play here.

[EntropyModel]

Quite a tough read where the ST signal will turn to sell, not there yet ...but, I have two high odds prices setups/road maps.

1. We turn down around current highs - then run to 2680 and make a Swing/IT low, for the run to 2820'ish ( pink pattern posted many times)

2. We bounce into next week, to close gap above, then turn down - this setup wd have potential to be very bearish on IT.

 

Cd we already have made pink path low, and now in move up? - too early to declare that, I put it lows odds as swing signals don't agree, i'd

want to see next ST sell signal result at minimum.

 

Price wise - if we turn down below 2745 ( previous ST high, gap above) and get ST sell, then its high odds (1), else high odds (2).

[EntropyModel]

ST signal very close to SELL finally now - a drop under 2732 will trigger ST sell.

Until sell is triggered, there is always chance of one more high, but, that is looking less likely now.

 

Then, I'll be looking to see what we get - whether its (1) or (2)  or some variant on those setups.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 29 June 2018 - 01:23 PM.

[EntropyModel]

ST sell ..finally. ..however, Price not following ST LQ at the moment - makes me think this might be EOQ related ..can't tell until monday, so 

less trusting of price action than normal here.

[EntropyModel]

Nice drop from ST sell on break of 2732 ...to close 2718.

 

Monday will be important - today's gap up and churn looks suspiciously like EOQ window dressing, if so, we'll

gap down and run to 2680....if not, and we can hold support and get ST BUY, then I favor setup 2.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 29 June 2018 - 03:15 PM.

[bigbud]

great reading !

 

I am looking for some kind of an ABC-correction, where we now are somwhere in B.

But was the last 4 days a sideways B, or did the B start yesterday and has some 1-2 more days to go...?

A bit unusual to make a lower low within a B, but can occur. Maybe it has 1-2 more days to go...