46 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

great reading !

 

I am looking for some kind of an ABC-correction, where we now are somwhere in B.

But was the last 4 days a sideways B, or did the B start yesterday and has some 1-2 more days to go...?

A bit unusual to make a lower low within a B, but can occur. Maybe it has 1-2 more days to go...

 

Thx.

 

The short term Wave count is not clear to me at the moment, so, I'm just following the system signals, hopefully the wave pattern setup will clear up next few sessions.

[EntropyModel]

MONDAY looks very important on my system for the Swing position, as per two setups I gave.

Alot of the EOD swing signals are showing 'potential bottom' configuration, but we need a low retest first.

On the other hand, a failure of 2680 wd be very bearish, so really my focus is on reading the ST signal for now.

 

the ST signal went back to sell 2732, and its low odds we V reverse up monday morning. I can't show the signals in the ST signal, because

most of it is proprietary, but I can show this basic signal  -  

 

https://www.screencast.com/t/zvorTssNs

 

So highest odds at least some 'bottoming' action monday morning, even if we are going to hold the recent low. 

IF we gap down, then there is chance for that test of KP 2680.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 30 June 2018 - 01:08 PM.

[EntropyModel]

ST SELL still in effect, but the lowest risk part of the sell signal is done now (@ 2708). That is the 'sweet spot' of the sell is done,

in most cases there is a retest or lower low, but in roughly 20% of signals there is not.

 

So high odds, any bounce here fails to gain much traction, and  a retest or lower low is high odds before

a ST BUY signal.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 02 July 2018 - 09:41 AM.

[EntropyModel]

Hmm.

 

Well, as someone who has spent 20 years learning about the craft of market timing signals, and building systems, this kind of market position right here still

has mystery.

 

There are just sometimes in market where even with clear buy/sell signals, the market is 'perfectly balance' between bullish/bearish setup - and there is no

signal on earth ( at least, that i've seen, and i've seen ALOT) that can give edge.

 

In that case, I fall back to my read of the tape - based on my read of waves, and other voodoo which I wd not trade off, but which do give me an edge in these types of setups.

 

>>So right here the ST signal is about to exit sell - and move to buy.

But my 'tape read' is that is a dangerous one to take.  Being purely mechanical and taking 'all signals' is one approach, but I believe in some judgement in these cases.

 

Btm line - 2710 is a KP for the ST sell/buy - if we drop again from 2710 the sell stays in effect, if we rally above 2711 then ST sell exits, and ST buy is generated, but

as said, not one I wd take, at high risk of whipsaw failure and poor risk/reward.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 02 July 2018 - 12:12 PM.

[EntropyModel]

OK so moved 2711--> so ST sell exit from 2732 friday, @2708 (low risk sweet spot exit) or 2711 ( high risk/reward exit).

 

ST BUY now from 2711 - again, not one I wd take personally, mechanical system wd have stop @ 2705 in case of whipsaw.

 

fyi - I don't always have time to track these real time, but If I post a signal I will follow it up always.

 

My best 'guess' here is we chop around into early close tomorrow for July 4th, then the test of 2680-2690 comes thur/fri.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 02 July 2018 - 01:08 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Widening out to the Daily Swing/IT setup for a minute.

 

IF your following along, u know the pink setup (see start of thread) - and that setup has a low around 2680-2690 yet to be put in.

 

I also added the red path for drop through 2680 - though lower odds.

 

Well, the red path  odds are creeping up here, I really don't like what i'm seeing for the pink path to bottom, but, as said, one step at time, but

this is definitely looking shall I say 'dangerous' here.  It wd have been much better if this AM had panicked down to 2690 area. 

 

BTW - naturally I am going on weeks  family vacation with no internet all next week so that will ideal timeframe for huge move LOL

Edited by Entropy3.0, 02 July 2018 - 02:05 PM.

[EntropyModel]

I guess I shd have bought the Buy signal   - perhaps machines do know better :-)

 

Buy signal still in effect, so, I wd expect typical July 4th - no real selling, probably more upside ...how much, really not sure.

I don't really have targets for the ST signals, they just go - buy, sell, buy, sell wherever.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 02 July 2018 - 04:53 PM.

[EntropyModel]

FYI - Buy signal exit here 2730 from 2711 - no sell yet.

[EntropyModel]

KP 2717* is the hourly one here - must hold that or it will further increase red path setup odds - i'd actually say pink/red is about 50/50 now.

We 'should' have made the swing/pink path low here, but its not looking good to my eye right now.

But real action will be thursday - market closes early today  1pm EST.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 03 July 2018 - 11:40 AM.

[bigbud]

that rising trendline support could be breaking.

In my setup that B-up in ABC-down looks pretty complete now, but could still go one more day I guess.

20MA is declining, and 40MA soon too, if we establish below that 2710-2730 consolidation range.

 

cheers