46 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

Nope 2717 broken - ST had gone to sell earlier after Buy exit ..i didn't post this one, but still surprising we dropped this much on pre July 4th, not sure

of the stat's on that I'l like to see them! 

Edited by Entropy3.0, 03 July 2018 - 11:59 AM.

[EntropyModel]

that rising trendline support could be breaking.

In my setup that B-up in ABC-down looks pretty complete now, but could still go one more day I guess.

20MA is declining, and 40MA soon too, if we establish below that 2710-2730 consolidation range.

 

cheers

 

The trendline is @ roughly 2680 and thought we wd test it monday, but didn't, this bounce off 2700 is certainly bearish looking to me as said, not sure if its a B wave or a wave ii on comp/RUT.

https://www.screenca...m/t/z1lHE4FUbFR

 

However, we 'should' have made the low here - swing signals gave bottom spotters, and moving up - but price didn't confirm, I still want to see thursday before ruling out a swing low here, but

its odds are dropping on my system especially with todays price move.

[bigbud]

trendline from closing data. Next step would be intraday.

 

In the old days the ideal correction was ~8 days down, ~4 days bounce, ~8 days down to complete.

Nowadays I dont see that so often anymore... but that is my setup here.

 

The lighter version is the pullback, which would have started to rally from here.

But I am looking for the correction

Edited by bigbud, 03 July 2018 - 12:19 PM.

[EntropyModel]

trendline from closing data. Next step would be intraday.

 

In the old days the ideal correction was ~8 days down, ~4 days bounce, ~8 days down to complete.

Nowadays I dont see that so often anymore... but that is my setup here.

 

The lighter version is the pullback, which would have started to rally from here.

But I am looking for the correction

 

OK duly noted bigbud, thx for your analysis.

 

If the market can't make a swing turn UP by friday, or, we take out 2680, then I am in agreement with your setup,

right now my Swing system is about 50/50 on that, maybe 51/49 in favor of failure. 

Edited by Entropy3.0, 03 July 2018 - 07:22 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Talking of the Swing signals, I'll pick out a couple key ones from my system.

 

In the Bulls corner, for a Swing low being made around here - is this one.

https://www.screenca...m/t/kAQXgg2Diiy

 

Now, when the cross over fails, and we hook back down, we get big down trend moves like Mid to end of March.

So can any signal indicate odds of a failure? that wd be useful 

 

I look at liquidity for that, as main cause-effect, there are several signals, this one looks almost the same as the SPX MOMO signal above

What i've done, is note what SPX price does each time we cross to 'buy' - the vertical lines. 

 - in nearly every case, price has made a clear turn up - except our case. I wd therefore put thursday and absolute last day friday to make that turn,

or it indicates failure, similar to mid march.

 

https://www.screenca...om/t/dkB65H2nrS

 

 

Sentiment is not at typical Swing low positions - we can pick from many, but this illustrates things quite well from what I look at - using put/call data.

That said, we did see a big spike in bearishness on some polls, but polling data is not a short term tool, I prefer real money data.

https://www.screenca...om/t/ITX29USaEe

 

On the other hand, this looks like were trying to bottom.

https://www.screenca.../t/vyEnQ4fD9At2

 

So a mixed bag, for the Swing/IT I want to see thursday.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 03 July 2018 - 07:43 PM.

[EntropyModel]

FYI - no short term signal right now because stockcharts I use is screwed up by July 4 half day ..you might think a recurring event like that 

might be fixable, but apparently not - will take few days for intraday signals to correct.

 

But we are now in a compression pattern anyway - fitting my comments on swing above.

 

 

FYI - I am OUT ALL of NEXT WEEK on summer family vacation, no computer access - so I expect a big trending move 

Edited by Entropy3.0, 05 July 2018 - 12:01 PM.

[EntropyModel]

TIME is important on my System.

 

The way I look at markets is this ->

 - System projects price moves  from one key pivot to next

 - A key pivot is not just a price like support/resistance, its also a TIME, so I show them as boxes (decision windows) on the chart not lines.

 - System buy/sell signals coincide with movement out of the decision window(box).

 

Right now is classic example, this is why I'm explaining this - plus this is Trader talk right? :-)

 

>>We are in a 'decision box/window)' for the SWING cycle here.

So, if the Swing is going to turn up, on my system it wd very high odds occur here, since Monday, and into friday.(pink path)

If it fails to turn up, then the System will project high odds failure, and that means we move down out of the decision window (red path).

 

How do I know if we've 'turned up' - I use a price model/trend predictor, and also judgement about the wave pattern and other characteristics, but mostly PRICE.

I also look at the many signals in the system signal - how are they behaving, like they wd at Swing turn up or failure?

 

Right now - we as said are gradually shifting toward a failure, we have 'chewed' through nearly all buy signals here without gaining an Swing upside move.

We still have 'time', but its running out.

 

>>I would say friday and monday at absolute outside to break out, with a SPX move above 2755 (the required level) by then.<<

 

I'm leaning for a failure now, maybe only 55:45, but the failure to test 2680, the price pattern, the signal behavior are all 'far from ideal' .

 

A note about 'prediction' - I consider prediction to be, assessing the odds of an event without the data required to make that assessment.

For example, On monday, If I said 'the swing WILL turn up, because we are in the swing turn window' - the reality I have learned the hard way

from 20 years at this 'game', is NO ONE, can accurately 'predict' in that sense. I CAN 'predict' the decision windows, but I can't predict the outcome,

I have to wait to see in real time how price acts, what signals say -  I consider that REACTING not predicting.  Of course, I have biases, I have opinions,

but I won't trade them, and I try not to voice them - opinion about 'what could' happen are many, and not tradable, though for reasons of human nature

they are more popular than boring realities. :-)

Edited by Entropy3.0, 05 July 2018 - 01:14 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Back from 55:45 to 45:55  - ST LQ is strongly up, surprising we haven't push much higher ...by end of day I expect

we either break much higher, or fail to hold KP 2750.

[EntropyModel]

So there we go, break of KP2750* - so I am now bullish the Swing provided we stay above that level.

This is bit of a classic, as today was last day of the turn window, looks 'iffy but a typical LQ driven 'bot save, kind 

of the signature of the last year or so.

 

 

As said, I don't have my ST signals thanks to stockcharts messing them up July4, and I'm out on vacation from today,

but that's good timing I think - my signals will be reset by time I return and market I think is likely quite difficult here.

 

Longer term, this pattern looks very bearish now and giving me alot of confirmations, but I dont' have to worry about that

for now, likely August timeframe - unless we drop back underKP2750, though, ultimately that pattern was likely longer term bullish ironically.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 06 July 2018 - 11:37 AM.

[EntropyModel]

This is my final comments until post vacation next weekend unless I unexpectedly have internet or something major occurs.

 

Today was still 'iffy -  but as long as we stay above KP2750 daily close, and at most 2740 intraday on any pullback, then the Swing trend is up.

 

Stockcharts has now fixed their data, not too help now LOL ..but we had a ST buy for the move up, and now moved to ST SELL near the close.

IF the Swing up is strong, the ST Sell will just see a slowing of the upmove, or at worst a sideways move above 2750. 

So if monday we drop under 2750, and especially 2740, it means the swing up is very weak OR is going to fail and not be a strong trend.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 06 July 2018 - 05:37 PM.