46 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

I've updated the Setup chart to today, and for comparison the original setup and most recent.

 

Here is the original setup - pink line setup Posted May 24

https://www.screenca...om/t/2kIDsnObGi

 

We've executed all the pivot turns so far, last updated here:

https://www.screencast.com/t/KGZMJ45l

 

Current. 

https://www.screenca.../t/ZQdSwaypiiMb

 

2680 is the 'intercept' of pink line to black uptrend support line, originally wd have been 2660'ish.

The new red line - is the new setup I just mentioned on gap down in the AM.

 

System continues to put low odds any sustainable up move without either more time or price drop - signals not yet in swing buy setup.

 

 

 

 

 

Not posted here for while, just wanted to update - the pink path setup has executed perfectly. 

 

I am forming new long term paths, but the system puts us here in high odds bear market, so after the current pink drop line,

a bounce, followed by break of Feb lows, or  a drop through Feb lows without a bounce is also possible.

 

Note. Setup are just high odds, no one can predict the market as such, but consistent rhyming pattern do exist.

The one I posted back in may/june for the market top projection was based on a prior one.  However, the down

move does not match that one as well as a different year, but I need to see one more drop to 25XX mon-wed to match that one.

 

In my blog I noted many huge warning signals before the drop, and we are not quite out of the woods here.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 27 October 2018 - 12:04 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Just wanted to give a heads up - Same dynamic (reason for the initial drop from ATH - its a liquidity issue) is in play here ..system has high odds large drop possible into close today

 -  gap close below is high odds,  max setup tgt 2650.

 

Medium/high odds we are in a longer bounce period into the mid-terms with wild up/down movements.

If we drop to close gap or 2650, I cd see another move up from there, will  see in real/time .

 

FYI - for those that asked, currently my blog is closed to new members, I keep it small group with no hassles to avoid distractions. 

Edited by Entropy3.0, 02 November 2018 - 11:35 AM.

[EntropyModel]

Quick update - 

 

http://www.screencast.com/t/H7SS0QAt

[EntropyModel]

Really nice confirmation here today of the bear market setup. To add to comments below, If I may, I think its a bit of mistake to focus on sentiment too much.

The primary driver of likely bear market hereon my system is 'normalization of liquidity' which was a literal tidal wave previously. Sentiment is secondary, without

 geometrically increased LQ, market rally was/is unsustainable - so essentially we are just seeing what i call 'repricing'. Previously though, (2000,2007) the

proverbial 'they' has not been able (or perhaps wanted) to prevent the 'normalization' turning into a downward cascade in LQ (due to canonical system feedback)...we shall see as they say. 

 

Here's some comments from blog over weekend.

So summing up sentiment - 
There is some 'worry' in investors, but swing/short term traders are very bullish into thx giving ...because, 'everyone knows' its bullish.
Those season patterns are real, but, as said, if this is start (early days) of bear market, these are opportunities for distribution.

So this week cd give me more confirmation - if the ST/Swing up most in retail expect does NOT materialize, and we either
- go sideways below 2750, or may 2780 then drop ...that's follows the fractal i'm looking for.
- if instead we rally as XXXX mentions, as per March fractal to 2820...then my bear market fractal ( based on multiple and dynamic pattern) is less likely.

So this week is VERY important for me - I am looking for failure below 2780...if I get it, then I have a VERY high odds pattern for the next 3-6 months.

Heads up though - don't expect a crash, or waterfall, infact the moves into Jan wd high odds be frustrating to bulls/bears ...but i'll go over it IF 
I see the confirmation pattern I'm looking for ... were' REALLY cLOSE now to 5th or so confirming setup step ...so, this is huge.


NOTE - the most important parts of my system are LQ, and Price setup/internals ..as said, they all are following the fractal as well..so I won't
repeat all that. 

To be clear the 'next steps' on the long term 'bear market fractal' -are, and I can be pretty specific now:
- a failure ideally below 2780/90
- drop under 2650
- minor 2-5 day bounce
...

[EntropyModel]

 

To be clear the 'next steps' on the long term 'bear market fractal' -are, and I can be pretty specific now:
- a failure ideally below 2780/90
- drop under 2650
- minor 2-5 day bounce
...

 

Perfect drop under 2650 tagged the next setup step! - we've now executed enough steps in row to have high confidence on the longer setup as well.

 

We've actually dropped a bit through but I have some bounce signals - some variation is possible, but I'd expect the minor 2-5 day bounce to

start sometime today or tomorrow at latest. 

Edited by Entropy3.0, 20 November 2018 - 10:13 AM.

[EntropyModel]

Just to update on 'bounce setup' here - I don't want to post ST real time stuff here too much, but here's my afternoon post copied from blog.

 

We are getting the backtesting as I thought - now, will it break down again? to 2600 test ...OR maybe a ST low for bounce tomorrow ?

In the 'make a low/bounce' corner - 
- as said fractal setup allows for weak bounce 
- its thx giving tomorrow ( last session before)

In the 'break down' corner -
- signals do not support a low high odds yet - maybe a minor new low in last hour cd do it , then v up last 10 minutes ..something like that.

The fractals are road maps, but price/signals rule - so, for now I see high odds a retest into close of low, medium/high odds a lower low - 
now IF we see a bounce attempt, and signals are 'close enough to buy signal' - i'd be more inclined that usual to give it higher odds due to fractal/thx giving - but,
we are not there just yet.

Edited by Entropy3.0, 20 November 2018 - 02:46 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Nice. We got the retest of low into close..and no bounce

 

It's really trying to be 'cute' to call any multi day bounce, better, to 
just say 'down' and use the ST signal to try to catch occasional 30-60pt barn burners bounces- that's my thought here now.

The basic setup 'next step' is down to Feb low, likely just through it - THEN - I'm expecting a big bounce worth playing on long
side ..that cd change, but that is highest odds 'prediction' from this far out based on numerous similar setups I have.
That will be the 'xmas' rally I wd say timing wise - but we have work to do to get there.

 

Of course bounces will come anytime retail starts losing 'hope' . The 'bot AI's have the humans number here, that much is clear to me.

[EntropyModel]

This gap up is just NOT what bulls ordered ...far better bullish setup if we had dropped hard to 2600, that what I was looking for  then decent bullish setup.

 

No change here to machine patterns, just another 'reset on the slope of hope' ...could last an hour, a day or even couple of days but very high odds a drop

to 2600, and then Feb lows.

[EntropyModel]

quick update and a few charts of interest.

 

https://www.screencast.com/t/vxBu7YK1

[tradesurfer]

The Monthly price candlesticks seem to support the next extended trend drop to not start occurring UNTIL December monthly candle starts its creation.....