15 replies to this topic

[dTraderB]

 

It could be that taking out the BOTS' stops triggered the slide that blew away the intraday gains and then they sold each attempt to rally, even the final one of the day, to send SPX just below the 100ma and at the critical 2700 level, on the edge of the precipice, looking down at the 200ma, a mere 33 SPX points away at 2667.

 

But, it's not a certainty there will be continued declines since SPX 2700 has been very strong support and the 200ma has been a launching pad for extremely strong bounces, one rising all the way to 2800 plus. 

 

Still, there are worrying signs that the markets are being buffeted by too many negatives with the latest being the Shanghai Composite entering bear market territory and the threat of China springing a surprise on Trump. even talk of China telling the US to take its Treasuries and shove it where.....and China has also been guiding the YUAN lower....

Then, there is that honorable man, as described by President Trump, behaving quite dishonorably:  North Korean nuclear site upgraded, despite vow at summit Satellite photos show work done days after Trump, Kim met!

 

Note the 100ma has actually turned down, during the past few sessions; like a supertanker, this may take some time and effort to turn around,  again. Also, the 50ma has flattened and may turn down since about 50 days back, in May, the markets started another leg down. 

 

So, there is the good possibility that the markets will bounce off this support zone where it closed - SPX 2700 and 100ma - during the overnight session and don't look back during the regular session. 

 

Alternatively, down early in the regular session, then attempts to rally; if successful, SPX could close above the 50ma (2717); if not, then it's down to the 200ma, (2667) with next target at SPX 2645. 

 

 

In terms of seasonality, Q2 ends on Friday - will they sell or buy lower for profits from Q3's possible Summer rally? 

 

Edited by dTraderB, 27 June 2018 - 07:38 PM.

[dTraderB]

The Dow and S&P 500 blow their biggest intraday gain since February

https://www.marketwa...uary-2018-06-27

[dTraderB]

TIM ORD is short-term bearish

The bottom window is the NYSE Advance/NYSE Decline issues with a 4 period moving average which remains below 1.25 and bearish for now.  Next window up is the NYSE Advancing issues with 4 day average (blue) and NYSE declining issues with 4 day average (red).  When the blue line is on top than an uptrend is in progress; when red line is on top than decline is in progress and today’s market action produced a red line on top and bearish for now.  Seasonality turns bullish tomorrow ran runs to Friday but we don’t have panic in the TRIN and TICK readings suggesting a low is forming here.  Market could bounce to Monday’s gap level and find resistance and turn back down  Staying neutral for now. 

 

Charts & commentary here:

 

http://stockcharts.c...ne-27-2018.html

[dTraderB]

Phil's bear market lines: 24,000, 2,700, 7,000 and 1,650   

The above levels for the Dow 30, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2,000 are lines in the sand that the bulls dare not cross or we will, like China already has, enter bearish correction territory.  As I have been saying all month, we're expecting at least a 10% correction from the top and that's 22,850, 2,550, 6,500 and 1,600 – so we still have about another 5% to fall before we get interested in bottom-fishing.

 

We have to be careful with banks as European and Asian Banks are off a cliff and the fact that it's being ignored in the US reminds me very much of 2007 – when we acted as if nothing that happened in Europe or Asia would affect us.  Here's a list of 16 of the 39 Global Sifis (Systemically important Global Banks) that are already down 20%:

Deutsche Bank, Nordea, ICBC, UniCredit, Crédit Agricole, ING, Santander, Société Générale, BNP Paribas, UBS, Agricultural Bank of China, AXA, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Bank of China, Credit Suisse and Prudential Financial.

According to the Financial Times, the synchronised dips were a sign of global financial stress.  Ian Harnett, the managing director of global strategy at Absolute Strategy Research in London, used the data this week to send out his first “Black Swan” alert since 2009.  The alert he put out on Monday was his first since a warning on inflationary risks in June 2009, as oil prices climbed higher. Mr Harnett drew parallels to another bearish note he wrote in March 2007, when European banks began to sink while non-banks marched higher.

Edited by dTraderB, 27 June 2018 - 07:51 PM.

[dTraderB]

Market blew away overnight & early morning S&P Futures gains and made a new low for this move down. 

 

VERY WEAK

 

But, this SPX 2700 test when the cash market opens will be critical. 

[dTraderB]

Trump Blinks In Staring Contest With Ominous Yuan Slide, $8 Trillion In Global Bear Markets Trump Blinks In Staring Contest With Ominous Yuan Slide, $8 Trillion In Global Bear Markets

 

[dTraderB]

I will not be overstaying my welcome in the bear world! 

 

On high alert to close shorts .... there will be a bounce but the real question is HOW FAR and for HOW LONG!

[dTraderB]

That MAY HAVE BEEN THE BOTTOM for this leg down

 

Operative phrase there is "MAY HAVE"    !!

[dTraderB]

Break below ESH 2694 targets the 200ma SPX @ 2667

[dTraderB]

YEP, that's the bottom

 

...until the next move down....

 

the 50ma on the daily SPX is next resistance