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Gold headed for big low late 2018

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#1 Russ

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Posted 28 June 2018 - 01:50 PM

This seems to agree with the latest I heard from Martin Armstrong who said gold won't start to move up until after 2018, although previously he said 2020 to 2021.

 


Edited by Russ, 28 June 2018 - 01:51 PM.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#2 hhh

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Posted 28 June 2018 - 02:12 PM

Thanks Russ, for a cycles guy who claims to be able to predict anything and everything on time scales often on the order of 8.6 years, that's quite a readjustment and doesn't inspire confidence in either prediction. I can tell you Armstrong got bitcoin completely wrong and didn't understand that the 21 million (or whatever the exact number is) limit causes scarcity that is even stronger than that of gold (due to its existing, but unknown "limit") and of course fiat which has no scarcity unless it's temporarily engineered.



#3 Russ

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Posted 28 June 2018 - 02:20 PM

Thanks Russ, for a cycles guy who claims to be able to predict anything and everything on time scales often on the order of 8.6 years, that's quite a readjustment and doesn't inspire confidence in either prediction. I can tell you Armstrong got bitcoin completely wrong and didn't understand that the 21 million (or whatever the exact number is) limit causes scarcity that is even stronger than that of gold (due to its existing, but unknown "limit") and of course fiat which has no scarcity unless it's temporarily engineered.

 

Well, as someone said the problem with predicting is that it involves the future,  it is a tough business, but I am a big Armstrong fan, he has been right about many things, so I won't kick him too much when he got it wrong. His pi cycle model is an amazing thing, I think he should have got the Nobel prize in economics for that alone.


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#4 dougie

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Posted 29 June 2018 - 07:41 PM

How's that bitcoin scarcity working out?

#5 hhh

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Posted 30 June 2018 - 07:14 PM

As long as Bitcoin can maintain its position as number one, the scarcity matters. However, there is little barrier to entry in the crypto space, even less than in the fiat space, because people expect fiats to at least have countries behind them, so the answer is: it depends.



#6 Russ

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Posted 30 June 2018 - 10:31 PM

As long as Bitcoin can maintain its position as number one, the scarcity matters. However, there is little barrier to entry in the crypto space, even less than in the fiat space, because people expect fiats to at least have countries behind them, so the answer is: it depends.

Bitcoin has a possible trend (not the strongest signal though)  for a major low in mid 2019, dropping from almost 20k to the 6000 area is not exactly a strong instrument, I do not believe any of these digital currencies have any value, you could have thousands of these things, they are just digits on a hard drive. Where's the beef?

 


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#7 hhh

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Posted 02 July 2018 - 11:16 AM

Yes you could have an infinite number of cryptocurrencies, but somehow we don't have anything close to enough to totally destroy the price of Bitcoin (yet). but then it's like the real estate lie: everybody's moving here because it's such a nice place to live so prices will only go up. To which I reply: well why haven't they moved here already? How does Bitcoin maintain any price above zero? Bitcoin is the lead dog in this race, and I don't understand how it maintains its "value".

 

I have no interest in it other than watching from afar. It's fascinating to me how the madness of crowds has embraced it. The dichotomy of it having two fundamental characteristics of "money" in opposite polarities to what we're accustomed to is part of the paradox. It's about as fiat as can be, because as you say it's just digits on a computer which are the result of an energy wasting computation, but it has a hard limit on supply (speaking of Bitcoin in isolation here). So at the same time it's more fiat than fiat, but more gold than gold.