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The Perilous existence of an Aging Bull, as bears close in ...


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 07:20 PM

An extremely strong close as the SPX approaches the strong 2740/45 resistance zone after a frustrating day for the bears as they trued several times to turn this market down. However, eager dip buyers came in on each intraday pullback and even a bearish Fed Minute release could not derail the rally during the last hour. 

 

SPX is above the 50ma, volatility tumbled, and the apparently invincible bull marches on, no matter what they throw at it,

 

But, there are ominously dark clouds on the horizon and it will take a Houdini trick for the bull to withstand repeated attacks coming from several directions. Never say never, as we learned during the dot com bubble when the markets ignored any and every thing and kept making new highs almost every week, so don't be surprised if SPX closes above 2800 next week. 

 

I don't think this will happen and am more inclined to believe we will see SPX 2600 before SPX 2800. 

 

I also think the Chinese will deploy one or more of their strategic moves during the next week or two .....



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 05:36 AM

Still important is the NFP report (non-farm payrolls) with market participants eagerly awaiting the Trump pre-report tweet.... or maybe not since he was scolded the last time he foolishly tweeted in glowing terms about how good it was. 
HOURLY EARNINGS segment of the report is really all that matters in the current market & economic environment.



#3 dTraderB

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 07:36 AM

Initial reaction to NFP report is bullish but be alert for the usual "buyers' remorse" reversal. 



#4 dTraderB

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 09:15 AM

Nice rally, testing SPX 2740/45. 

A daily close above this will be quite bullish

 

Support @ SPX 2724, the daily 50ma

 

The aging bull still has ooooommmpppphhhhh !. 



#5 dTraderB

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 10:26 AM

Wirh QQQ nearing 175, it's that time again to accumulate QQQ Puts on any spike up.  

My tried & tested strategy is to buy deep in the money puts with expiration at least two months, preferably 3, away. 

 

Of course, it costs a lot but you pay for what you get! Cheap things not always good...



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 12:44 PM

Looks as if the newbie latecomers are piling on in a desperate bid to get into this rally... exuberance high.... conditions ripe for pull-back



#7 diogenes227

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 12:48 PM

Probably should have called the post "The PERSISTENT existence of an aging bull..."


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#8 dTraderB

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 09:52 AM

ha ha ....

 

To paraphrase the immortal words of Aristotle or Erasmus "It is not one swalowe that bryngeth in somer"

(  One swallow does not a Summer make)  

 

But, "we shall see" .... to borrow the words of a vocabulary-challenged President! 

 

swallowtailed-kite-640x400.jpg



#9 dTraderB

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 09:54 AM

Got filled on 9 QQQ SEP puts. Hope to add some more next week before it drops to SPX 2700 or lower ....