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"Secret Hedge Fund" Buys... Very, VERY Good


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#11 CLK

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Posted 08 July 2018 - 05:29 PM

My 99% volume signal finally missed badly and although I took another big drawdown, the market

gave me a chance to reduce that by half, just like the first time, but as usual I wait for more and

get taken to the cleaners. I think traders in general are just tired right now, I know I am, so don't

expect a lot of short covering fuel, neither are sellers going to step up on weakness. I've been watching

the ITBM and the expected move after the turn is 50 points so we have used up about half or more

of that already. I will go long a small position on a pullback here, don't like the idea of chasing.

Not taking any more large positions for awhile.

 

 



#12 andr99

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Posted 08 July 2018 - 05:43 PM

 

just want to add......maybe the hedge fund signal is right and europe too is going to rise alongside with america, but that is not what I' m actually seeing here...at least let me say that. In any case we will discover soon the truth, because one side or the other they have to take the IT direction they're hiding   

the truth was here 675ono

 

 

that is just a part of the truth....the other part is....ABC about done on DB... and.....the power of three gaps....again on DB. You have short memory sometimes


forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N.....though partly langbardic


#13 da_cheif

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Posted 08 July 2018 - 06:57 PM

 

 

just want to add......maybe the hedge fund signal is right and europe too is going to rise alongside with america, but that is not what I' m actually seeing here...at least let me say that. In any case we will discover soon the truth, because one side or the other they have to take the IT direction they're hiding   

the truth was here 675ono

 

 

that is just a part of the truth....the other part is....ABC about done on DB... and.....the power of three gaps....again on DB. You have short memory sometimes

 

u own it yet??



#14 da_cheif

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Posted 08 July 2018 - 07:00 PM

My 99% volume signal finally missed badly and although I took another big drawdown, the market

gave me a chance to reduce that by half, just like the first time, but as usual I wait for more and

get taken to the cleaners. I think traders in general are just tired right now, I know I am, so don't

expect a lot of short covering fuel, neither are sellers going to step up on weakness. I've been watching

the ITBM and the expected move after the turn is 50 points so we have used up about half or more

of that already. I will go long a small position on a pullback here, don't like the idea of chasing.

Not taking any more large positions for awhile.

 

 

>I think traders in general are just tired right now,<   naw just impatient    675ono



#15 NAV

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Posted 08 July 2018 - 09:59 PM

 

 

Not taking any more large positions for awhile.

 

You are in a hurry to get rich.

 

 

Just make 30% a year and do the compounding math. See where you will be in 10 years and 20 years!. If it's tax free compunding, all the better. Making 30% a year is 2.5% per month. That's 62.5 SPX points. If you trade the 2x leveraged ETF, you just need to make 31 SPX points per month to make 2.5% per month and 30% per year. Oh yes, you can sleep well at night with 2X leverage.

 

All this optimal position sizing is a load of manure. It's all theory. The distribution of returns in real trading can lead to Gambler's ruin, if you try optimal position sizing. Does not work in real-life trading. Sure, in some cases it has lead to rapid build up of trading account. But most of them have ended up blowing up the account, eventually.


Edited by NAV, 08 July 2018 - 10:06 PM.

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#16 CLK

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Posted 09 July 2018 - 04:30 AM

 

 

 

Not taking any more large positions for awhile.

 

You are in a hurry to get rich.

 

 

Just make 30% a year and do the compounding math. See where you will be in 10 years and 20 years!. If it's tax free compunding, all the better. Making 30% a year is 2.5% per month. That's 62.5 SPX points. If you trade the 2x leveraged ETF, you just need to make 31 SPX points per month to make 2.5% per month and 30% per year. Oh yes, you can sleep well at night with 2X leverage.

 

All this optimal position sizing is a load of manure. It's all theory. The distribution of returns in real trading can lead to Gambler's ruin, if you try optimal position sizing. Does not work in real-life trading. Sure, in some cases it has lead to rapid build up of trading account. But most of them have ended up blowing up the account, eventually.

 

 

 

I don't think you became a full time trader for a living starting out with a small account the way you trade with low leverage, I may be wrong though. Anyone making 100k plus at a day job can easily re-capitalize their account properly to 50-100K after 6-18 months even if they were to blow up their account. Trying to trade like me with 5-10k won't generate a living trading with the 2x fund, I'll go broke in drawdown from bills, I understand building my account slowly is best, but if I need to trade the hourly to reduce risk, while working a day job at the same time, until I have enough to  go full time, then I can't, nor probably anyone could get by monitoring their phone on that day job for the hourly moves without getting fired, you have a couple checks on breaks and that's it. Plus the stress of not being able to watch the market impacts job performance. The alternative is just trade the daily, never had much success with that, at least not with options. I'm just covering real world road blocks to being successful in the market which the majority are not.

 

Right now I'm selling my house and most of my land, I don't plan to go back to work for anyone again if I can help it, I will be taking the proceeds to get back into house flipping, none of those profits will go into crypto or the stock market at least until I have sold two homes and then it won't be big adds.

 

My system works best for pyramiding during wide swing volatile markets, which that seems to be over for awhile, so I have to go back to same position size every trade now to prevent blowing up my account. Also for ETF trades on the hourly, the three day settlement can be an issue going all in with 0.5% stop as to how often you can trade the turns. Right now I'm looking at day trading same lot following the 10 minute NYAD, not sure it will work but price rarely diverges from internals for very long, just have to be careful with gap trading and not assume it's going to be a big trending day.


Edited by CLK, 09 July 2018 - 04:31 AM.


#17 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 09 July 2018 - 07:40 AM

 

All this optimal position sizing is a load of manure. It's all theory. The distribution of returns in real trading can lead to Gambler's ruin, if you try optimal position sizing. Does not work in real-life trading. Sure, in some cases it has lead to rapid build up of trading account. But most of them have ended up blowing up the account, eventually.

 

 

Seems to me like it's a convoluted way to make an excuse for pyramiding! It's a great way to grow a massive account quickly...prior to cratering the whole thing.

 


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#18 NAV

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Posted 09 July 2018 - 09:11 AM

 

 

 

 

Not taking any more large positions for awhile.

 

You are in a hurry to get rich.

 

 

Just make 30% a year and do the compounding math. See where you will be in 10 years and 20 years!. If it's tax free compunding, all the better. Making 30% a year is 2.5% per month. That's 62.5 SPX points. If you trade the 2x leveraged ETF, you just need to make 31 SPX points per month to make 2.5% per month and 30% per year. Oh yes, you can sleep well at night with 2X leverage.

 

All this optimal position sizing is a load of manure. It's all theory. The distribution of returns in real trading can lead to Gambler's ruin, if you try optimal position sizing. Does not work in real-life trading. Sure, in some cases it has lead to rapid build up of trading account. But most of them have ended up blowing up the account, eventually.

 

 

 

I don't think you became a full time trader for a living starting out with a small account the way you trade with low leverage, I may be wrong though. Anyone making 100k plus at a day job can easily re-capitalize their account properly to 50-100K after 6-18 months even if they were to blow up their account. Trying to trade like me with 5-10k won't generate a living trading with the 2x fund, I'll go broke in drawdown from bills, I understand building my account slowly is best, but if I need to trade the hourly to reduce risk, while working a day job at the same time, until I have enough to  go full time, then I can't, nor probably anyone could get by monitoring their phone on that day job for the hourly moves without getting fired, you have a couple checks on breaks and that's it. Plus the stress of not being able to watch the market impacts job performance. The alternative is just trade the daily, never had much success with that, at least not with options. I'm just covering real world road blocks to being successful in the market which the majority are not.

 

Right now I'm selling my house and most of my land, I don't plan to go back to work for anyone again if I can help it, I will be taking the proceeds to get back into house flipping, none of those profits will go into crypto or the stock market at least until I have sold two homes and then it won't be big adds.

 

My system works best for pyramiding during wide swing volatile markets, which that seems to be over for awhile, so I have to go back to same position size every trade now to prevent blowing up my account. Also for ETF trades on the hourly, the three day settlement can be an issue going all in with 0.5% stop as to how often you can trade the turns. Right now I'm looking at day trading same lot following the 10 minute NYAD, not sure it will work but price rarely diverges from internals for very long, just have to be careful with gap trading and not assume it's going to be a big trending day.

 

 

Been there, done that. I agree with most of your points. It's a tough road. But the reality is, you need a big account, before you can go full-time. No way around it. You can't afford to leverage and blow-up once you go full-time.


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

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#19 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 09 July 2018 - 12:36 PM

What would happen if one, say, leveraged up (SSO?) on these signals and went back to unleveraged fully long after a 2% move?

 

I personally leveraged up at the low... I probably need to back off a bit.

 

SecretHFBuys7-7-18.gif

 

You can see that it can occasionally be early, but if you are, you don't have to wait long to get right!

 

 

attachicon.gifSecretHFBuys7-7-18BIG.gif

 


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http://wallstreetsen...t.com/trial.htm
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#20 NAV

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Posted 09 July 2018 - 08:25 PM

What would happen if one, say, leveraged up (SSO?) on these signals and went back to unleveraged fully long after a 2% move?

 

I personally leveraged up at the low... I probably need to back off a bit.

 

attachicon.gifSecretHFBuys7-7-18.gif

 

You can see that it can occasionally be early, but if you are, you don't have to wait long to get right!

 

 

attachicon.gifSecretHFBuys7-7-18BIG.gif

 

 

Mark,

 

2x is a healthy leverage. Even 3x is borderline manageable. The kind of leverage that CLX is talking about is 15x to 25x kind of thing, which is outright dangerous.

 

I used to use 5x leverage and trade the ES when my account was small. These days i don't go beyond the 2x lev ETFs.


Edited by NAV, 09 July 2018 - 08:26 PM.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

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