30 replies to this topic

[robo]

so robo....who told u this?  >he facts are that this market is in a topping process are those facts continue to increase<

That's my opinion based on the historical data/indicators I use and track. The chart you posted even has a pattern on it that indicates the trend line will be BT in the next few years. Now, with all that said I'm VST and ST trading most of the time. I MT trade VXF when I like the setup. So, if it's different this time - then so be it. But the indicators are the indicators and I can't ignore what I see. We shall know in the next 24 months or so if the trend line on your chart will indeed be BT.  That's what I see Brother. Like you,  I traded during the 2000 and 2007 Bear markets and my Birthday is Oct 19th if that date rings a bell Brother. I was trading then too....

 

I use many indicators for "guessing" that a top is getting closer since NO ONE can ever know for sure.

 

These charts are just for tracking and tell us nothing. I NEVER use charts for trading. I use them for tracking only. I use cycles and sentiment, and use the charts to look for patterns that the BOTS and the herd leave behind, So far, it's never been different if you can see the data/pattern forming.

 

 

 

Side Note:  I was born in Garden City MI,  and my parents are from that area. I thought you be a motor city dude too? Would that be correct?

 

Headed out to lunch so good trading!

Edited by robo, 09 July 2018 - 01:43 PM.

[robo]

Edited by robo, 09 July 2018 - 01:50 PM.

[da_cheif]

so robo....u left off 2  3 letter words......;.IMO for "facts"    and IMO for "no one can"

[robo]

so robo....u left off 2  3 letter words......;.IMO for "facts"    and IMO for "no one can"

 

LOL...  Yeah, it's true. NO ONE can pick the exact top, but the historical data and warning signs are clear to me. What does that mean - investors should stay very nimble in this market.  Care should be taken when taking or adding new potions that must be held 12 months or more for LT capital gains....

 

Side note:  This is a sweet deal for those that fall into this bracket.   No taxes on the gains!

 

'For example, a married couple filing jointly pays no capital gains tax if their total taxable income is $77,220 or less.'

 

Long-term vs. short-term capital gains taxes

Long-term capital gains are those you earn on assets you’ve held for more than a year. Under the new 2018 tax law, such gains are taxed at three rates, depending on your overall income: zero, 15 percent and 20 percent. For example, a married couple filing jointly pays no capital gains tax if their total taxable income is $77,220 or less. They’ll pay 15 percent on capital gains if their income is $77,221 to $479,000. For couples above that income level, the rate is 20 percent. There also is a de facto fourth bracket for certain high earners who must pay an additional 3.8 percent on investment income as part of the Affordable Care Act.

https://www.bankrate...ital-gains-tax/

Edited by robo, 09 July 2018 - 03:58 PM.

[da_cheif]

 

so robo....u left off 2  3 letter words......;.IMO for "facts"    and IMO for "no one can"

 

LOL...  Yeah, it's true. NO ONE can pick the exact top, but the historical data and warning signs are clear to me. What does that mean - investors should stay very nimble in this market. Care should be taken trying to add new potions that are needed for LT capital gains....

 

Side note:  This is a sweet deal for those that fall into this bracket.   No taxes on the gains!

 

'For example, a married couple filing jointly pays no capital gains tax if their total taxable income is $77,220 or less.'

 

Long-term vs. short-term capital gains taxes

Long-term capital gains are those you earn on assets you’ve held for more than a year. Under the new 2018 tax law, such gains are taxed at three rates, depending on your overall income: zero, 15 percent and 20 percent. For example, a married couple filing jointly pays no capital gains tax if their total taxable income is $77,220 or less. They’ll pay 15 percent on capital gains if their income is $77,221 to $479,000. For couples above that income level, the rate is 20 percent. There also is a de facto fourth bracket for certain high earners who must pay an additional 3.8 percent on investment income as part of the Affordable Care Act.

https://www.bankrate...ital-gains-tax/

 

what historical data is that?

[robo]

U.S. Treasuries,  High-yield corporate bond funds, Extreme real estate prices, Extreme equity valuations and prices, and Several LT indicators from Sentiment trader.  I also track several of John Hussman's proprietary indicators that indicated in 2000 and 2007 to Mind the trap door like the current indicators are.

 

https://www.hussmanf...mment/mc180627/

 

There are a few others, but you should get my point that they "ARE ALL" based on some "Historical Extreme" that is very close to "repeating". So, If it's not going to be different this time one should stay nimble going forward in my opinion...

 

Take care!

 

 

 

It is far more important to understand historic interrelationships rather than to try to understand why they exist.

 

Kaplan

 

https://seekingalpha...egular_articles

Edited by robo, 09 July 2018 - 06:26 PM.

[da_cheif]

and everything u just sed allong with a soaring stock market is coincident with a world wide inflationary economic boom of unequalled proportions....this is a once in a lifetime event and like i promised nose bleed will be indemick    thats why so few made it to the top of K2   watch the sky

[da_cheif]

 

U.S. Treasuries,  High-yield corporate bond funds, Extreme real estate prices, Extreme equity valuations and prices, and Several LT indicators from Sentiment trader.  I also track several of John Hussman's proprietary indicators that indicated in 2000 and 2007 to Mind the trap door like the current indicators are.

 

https://www.hussmanf...mment/mc180627/

 

There are a few others, but you should get my point that they "ARE ALL" based on some "Historical Extreme" that is very close to "repeating". So, If it's not going to be different this time one should stay nimble going forward in my opinion...

 

Take care!

 

 

 

It is far more important to understand historic interrelationships rather than to try to understand why they exist.

 

Kaplan

 

https://seekingalpha...egular_articles

 

john hussman??    ur kidding   .....lol

[da_cheif]

yo robo everybody know about hussman   http://www.fortunefi...imism-and-pride

[robo]

yo robo everybody know about hussman   http://www.fortunefi...imism-and-pride

Hussman's  indicators nailed the 2000 and 2007 Bears, and those indicators are now at extremes again. We shall see how it all plays out. Again, it doesn't really matter to me since I'm a trader, and my system is currently on a buy signal.  It went to a buy after the start of the latest daily cycle. We shall see if it's going to be RT or LT and if the ICL is still ahead of us...

 

The post was based on the chart you posted. My opinion was based on the pattern only, and I still think that trend line will be tested in the 24 months like the other cycles did.

 

Look for some ST weakness again soon....

 

Good trading Cheif!

Edited by robo, 09 July 2018 - 11:51 PM.