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Running of the Bulls, Enjoy, it is the Last Hurrah!


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 09 July 2018 - 08:14 PM

Very bullish charts, volatility implosion, strong buying, but it looks so much like the last mile, the last hurrah, until the next major rally - if any - of this long term Bull market, begins post-midterm elections into the Xmas/January seasonal bullishness. 

 

SPX daily chart clearly shows this ramp up since last week and all indications show more upside potential. But, beware of getting complacent and taking it for granted because the next decline is due and it could be as strong as that one in January 

 

If SPX 2805 is taken out then there is a high probability this market can spike up to the previous record highs. Most likely, this is BUY the  pre-earnings hype and then SELL the actual earnings. 

 

This guy has it right: 

‘This rally in stocks is a last hurrah!’ warns Guggenheim’s Minerd 

Markets are crazy to ignore the risks and consequences of a #tradewar. This rally in #stocks is the last hurrah! Investors should sell now, speculators may do better in August.

— Scott Minerd (@ScottMinerd) July 9, 2018

 

Minerd is far from the only one suggesting that markets may be underestimating the potential for a clash between the U.S. and its trade partners across the globe to have harmful effects on global economies.

However, some worry that average investors may be underestimating the potential for a protracted China-U.S. spat to deliver a more significant and blow to the domestic economy.

Morgan Stanley Wealth Management recently wrote in a recent report that analysis suggesting that the impact of trade clashes will be de minimus don’t fully account for the “risks associated with America’s increasingly aggressive position on trade,” Ryan Vlastelica noted in an article last week.

On top of that, Ray Dalio, the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund on Friday appeared in a tweet to hint that something pernicious for market participants had begun.

To be sure, it is also not the only ominous call for Minerd. Back in March, he warned that as the economy approaches full employment, generating wage pressures, the Federal Reserve will ratchet up interest rates, slamming debt-bloated firms that added leverage during periods of ultralow rates.

 

https://www.marketwa...nerd-2018-07-09

 



#2 dTraderB

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Posted 09 July 2018 - 08:26 PM

I am in general agreement of this forecast but I don't see any major rally until November, earliest. Of course, I could be quite wrong:

 

"As far as the coming week, support is now at 2730-35SPX. As long as we remain over that support, I am looking for the market to continue to attack the 2800SPX region next.

 

Moreover, the next major test for this market will likely come in August. Once this current rally completes in the coming weeks, the depth of the pullback I expect to see later this summer will tell us several very important things about the market. First, the depth of the pullback will allow us to project how high over 3000 the market will rally before we top out. And, second, the depth of the pullback will tell us when the market will top out.

 

 

For those that may not remember, I am looking for a 20-30% correction to begin once the market completes this phase of its long-term rally over 3000SPX. That will likely begin in 2019, (and maybe even as early as the end of 2018, depending on what happens in August)."

 

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#3 LMF

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Posted 09 July 2018 - 10:57 PM

NDX should end up around the 200 day MA sometime before the November election.....a long way down from today.  NDX and RUT are the strongest, having exceeded the January highs already.  Expect sustained new highs above the current consolidation after the election. 



#4 da_cheif

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 04:48 AM

Very bullish charts, volatility implosion, strong buying, but it looks so much like the last mile, the last hurrah, until the next major rally - if any - of this long term Bull market, begins post-midterm elections into the Xmas/January seasonal bullishness. 

 

SPX daily chart clearly shows this ramp up since last week and all indications show more upside potential. But, beware of getting complacent and taking it for granted because the next decline is due and it could be as strong as that one in January 

 

If SPX 2805 is taken out then there is a high probability this market can spike up to the previous record highs. Most likely, this is BUY the  pre-earnings hype and then SELL the actual earnings. 

 

This guy has it right: 

‘This rally in stocks is a last hurrah!’ warns Guggenheim’s Minerd 

Markets are crazy to ignore the risks and consequences of a #tradewar. This rally in #stocks is the last hurrah! Investors should sell now, speculators may do better in August.

— Scott Minerd (@ScottMinerd) July 9, 2018

 

Minerd is far from the only one suggesting that markets may be underestimating the potential for a clash between the U.S. and its trade partners across the globe to have harmful effects on global economies.

However, some worry that average investors may be underestimating the potential for a protracted China-U.S. spat to deliver a more significant and blow to the domestic economy.

Morgan Stanley Wealth Management recently wrote in a recent report that analysis suggesting that the impact of trade clashes will be de minimus don’t fully account for the “risks associated with America’s increasingly aggressive position on trade,” Ryan Vlastelica noted in an article last week.

On top of that, Ray Dalio, the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund on Friday appeared in a tweet to hint that something pernicious for market participants had begun.

To be sure, it is also not the only ominous call for Minerd. Back in March, he warned that as the economy approaches full employment, generating wage pressures, the Federal Reserve will ratchet up interest rates, slamming debt-bloated firms that added leverage during periods of ultralow rates.

 

https://www.marketwa...nerd-2018-07-09

 

didnt the market ignore WWII....continental illinois collapse...savings and loan collapse.....the end of the world 87 crash?........u worry 2 much eh



#5 tsharp

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 06:28 AM

NDX should end up around the 200 day MA sometime before the November election.....a long way down from today.  NDX and RUT are the strongest, having exceeded the January highs already.  Expect sustained new highs above the current consolidation after the election. 

 

In terms of momentum, the NAZ and RUT are actually the weakest... both indices have been in negative divergence for a while now.

 

NAZ_W_7.9.18.jpg

 

Link to chart:  https://postimg.cc/image/o1bayua3d/



#6 dTraderB

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 06:48 AM

AGREED with both comments above. Both  NDX and RUT are in "bubble" mode and will decline more than the DOW and S&P. 

 

Watch the Financial stocks, that's key to the market direction



#7 dTraderB

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 06:54 AM

ALL boys and the coach rescued! 

There are bad things in the world but also wonderful achievements that restore our hopes in the greatness of human beings. This Thai Cave rescue mission has to be a shining achievement that makes all of us happy and believe that we can do better if we try.

 

https://www.theguard...ch-live-updates


Edited by dTraderB, 10 July 2018 - 06:54 AM.


#8 CLK

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 08:11 AM

Looking for some downside today, maybe 2760.

 

 

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#9 NAV

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 08:18 AM

ALL boys and the coach rescued! 

There are bad things in the world but also wonderful achievements that restore our hopes in the greatness of human beings. This Thai Cave rescue mission has to be a shining achievement that makes all of us happy and believe that we can do better if we try.

 

https://www.theguard...ch-live-updates

 

Indeed !  


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

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#10 fib_1618

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Posted 10 July 2018 - 08:30 AM

ALL boys and the coach rescued! 

There are bad things in the world but also wonderful achievements that restore our hopes in the greatness of human beings. This Thai Cave rescue mission has to be a shining achievement that makes all of us happy and believe that we can do better if we try.

 

And you'll be able to stream the movie by the end of next year.

 

Fib


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